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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

In general, Rt depends on seasonality, societal behavior and population immunity. States that opened early had summer surges that resulted in perhaps 15% to 20% of the population infected before immunity and behavior brought surges under control. 6/14https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992 …

Trevor Bedford added,

Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb

I wanted to discuss the degree to which population immunity may be contributing to curbing #COVID19 in Florida, Arizona and Texas, where recent surges have resulted in substantial epidemics. 1/16

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3 replies 25 retweets 238 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

Here I'm demonstrating this relationship in a contour plot that shows how social connectivity and population immunity influence Rt. In August, the US as a whole was roughly on the dashed line of Rt = 1. 7/14pic.twitter.com/IpdWZ4iawD

3 replies 21 retweets 204 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

Over the course of Sep and Oct, seasonality crept in and increased Rt by perhaps 20%. 8/14

2 replies 15 retweets 177 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

This increase in Rt due to seasonality tilted the dynamic equilibrium towards transmission. Here, I'm showing the same plot of social connectivity and population immunity but with a 20% increase in R0 due to seasonality. 9/14pic.twitter.com/f5tHS9gJDa

3 replies 36 retweets 228 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

You can see that where we had been at Rt ~1 (shown as the black dot) now corresponds to Rt ~1.15 and results in an exponentially growing epidemic. 10/14

1 reply 16 retweets 183 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

We now have a choice in terms of how we get back to Rt<1. The virus "wants" to take us to the right towards more infections, where population immunity brings transmission back down. Alternatively, we can scale back social connectivity to curb transmission. 11/14pic.twitter.com/6q3JcXskx9

8 replies 88 retweets 338 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

A US-wide epidemic with Rt = 1.15 will result in an additional 25% of the population infected before the epidemic is resolved, while an epidemic with Rt = 1.2 will result in an additional ~30% of the population infected. 12/14

2 replies 50 retweets 275 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

We're approaching these numbers in Wisconsin (310k total cases for ~1.2M infections in a population of 5.8M for ~21% of the state infected) and North Dakota (60k total cases for ~240k infections in a population of 760k for ~32% of the state infected). 13/14

11 replies 48 retweets 278 likes

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Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020

If we don't take action soon the virus will decide for us. An eventual 30% of the US infected would correspond to ~450k deaths (at an IFR of 0.45%) and many more cases of #longcovid. 14/14

72 replies 334 retweets 861 likes

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Ealasaid‏ @Ealasaid1743 13 Nov 2020

Replying to @trvrb

What kind of action?

3 replies 0 retweets 1 like

JF‏ @jackfruitstaken 13 Nov 2020

Replying to @Ealasaid1743 @trvrb

It's out of Trevor's area of expertise so I don't think he comments much. I suspect internal travel restrictions would make a dent, but they haven't been floated. Real quarantines, where you essentially imprison someone for two weeks, would help - also not an option politically

6:40 PM - 13 Nov 2020

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1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 13 Nov 2020
  Replying to @jackfruitstaken @Ealasaid1743
  
  I think we’ll get another experiment here in comparing Europe (with a fresh round of lockdowns) to the US. I’ve really wanted a targeted / real-time understanding of settings driving transmission so that we could have smarter decisions about restrictions to put in place.
  
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