Does anybody have any good Corona predictions? Is COVID over, or are we just over it? Will we get a third wave of the virus this winter? What’s really going on?
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I don't. It's now almost impossible to find good-faith analysis of the degree of immunity in any given population. Libs: "we have no idea, it's epistemologically impossible to know" vs cons: "NYC has herd immunity and that's all there is to say on the subject"
School openings will increase spread - but on college campuses this might not be such a bad deal if the kids stay in their dorms through an outbreak. The biggest concern is that elementary and high schools bring it into family housing, which WILL happen at open schools
