When public officials give you the 'bad news' with numbers in the millions they're trying to get you out of lockdown. Proper measures of the kind that are being taken will prevent the total infections from reaching 20% of the total population. It just hurts airlines and hotels.
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To be clear the 'rosy' scenario is on the scale of 100,000 dead Americans in contrast to multiple millions. But I think there are reasons to believe the first major spike in any first world location is by far the most damaging stage of the disease.
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