Take it from a guy who's been losing his shit since January, the 18 month thing was always doomerism. Italy will ease their lockdown in under a month and keep it eased. The US has a number of great options and has chosen the worst two
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Then maybe Neil Ferguson and his co-authors should have kept their mouths shut rather than recommending a 18-month lockdown on the basis of 13-year-old, undocumented flu modeling computer code.
We have the template for societies that stay open. SK and Japan are managing. Tokyo, of all places, is managing. Masks, temp checks, out-of-home quarantines and test-and-trace is enough to halt exponential growth. Add serological tests and you're set by mid May
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Crucially this strategy does not work if you wait to get all the necessary supplies from China. It took three months for anyone to even figure out we should be making masks. That's why people think the US will lock down indefinitely or suffer a few megadeaths. Policy projection.
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