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jackfruitstaken's profile
JF
JF
JF
@jackfruitstaken

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JF

@jackfruitstaken

Jackfruit from the Internet. "Ein Tier, das nur in der Gesellschaft sich vereinzeln kann." - Marx "Blam[es] on his boots the faults of his feet." - Beckett

Joined June 2009

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      12. But that's not the worst part. We have literally over a century's history of mathematical modeling epidemic progression. Some look somewhat bell-like. Others don't. It depends on the circumstances, details of the virus, behavior of the population, interventions, etc.

      18 replies 138 retweets 2,445 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      13. [pause to take beta-blockers]

      20 replies 71 retweets 2,886 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      14. This is unsubstantiated bullshit. IF the bell-curve were a "law of nature", it shouldn't necessarily apply to the vast range of human responses that people take to stop epidemics. Yet this assertion is supported with data from places where interventions slowed things down.pic.twitter.com/ASrkdKzj6p

      25 replies 147 retweets 2,067 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      15. Wait, are already breaking the data down by country? We were cautioned against that as being misleading just a few paragraphs ago!

      8 replies 74 retweets 1,907 likes
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    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      16. Ah, Farr's law. I don't know how the author could have more effectively discredited himself to the epidemiology community with any two other words. It's an old rule-of-thumb that suggests epidemics take a bell-curve shape. BUT....pic.twitter.com/QOWxeUzQmT

      6 replies 94 retweets 1,570 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      17. When I teach ID epidemiology OR data science, I tend to have my students read this 1990 paper as a cautionary tail against non-mechanistic modeling. http://documents.aidswiki.net/PHDDC/BREG.PDF  It uses Farr's law to predict the size of the HIV epidemic.pic.twitter.com/3dKhSuiMQG

      15 replies 191 retweets 2,026 likes
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    7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      18. The authors conclude that the HIV epidemic will encompass roughly 200,000 cases before fading away in the mid 1990s. This graph is from the original paper. You can't make this shit up.pic.twitter.com/RogE3sISuC

      23 replies 158 retweets 2,166 likes
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    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      19. Next up a very, very basic fallacy about the effect of flattening the curve. Almost *any* reasonable epidemiological model you use, from SIR to all sorts of fancy spatial PDE or agent-based approaches, will show that decreasing transmission rate decreases total epidemic size.pic.twitter.com/kWjGl2sVhZ

      22 replies 141 retweets 1,740 likes
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    9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

      20. This is common sense, as well as first-chapter-of-the-epidemiology-textbook stuff. It was also sadly predictable. See my note about severe #DKE19 strains, a day before @aginnt's medium post:https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240803788035784704 …

      Carl T. Bergstrom added,

      Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
      Not in the report, but particularly virulent strains include "The areas under curve should be the same, dumbass!", "What's so hard about estimating CFR?", and "Who needs the Harvard School of Public Health when you've got Elon Musk?"
      Show this thread
      5 replies 81 retweets 1,444 likes
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    10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 Mar 2020

      21. This claim needs citation. I am unaware of CDC plans that involve allowing the majority of the country to be infected. Because the author may be cherry-picking here, I won't call it an outright lie. But it's not the position of the organization that we allow this to happen.pic.twitter.com/yiGKFLEvdR

      21 replies 79 retweets 1,434 likes
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      JF‏ @jackfruitstaken 21 Mar 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      Not the stated position, but can reasonably be inferred from the overall approach leading up to March.

      8:03 PM - 21 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • user13522
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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