Opinion: A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.https://buff.ly/2xN9klx
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No. Currently the worst case is Lombardy (Italy) and as of March 16, 2020 only 0.026% of population was diagnosed COVID-19 positive. So 20-60% infection rate is not real IMO.
Those high percentages are based on, essentially, guesses. It's totally plausible that if we went on with our lives and ignored the plague we would infect that many people, but testing, tracing and masks have kept the numbers in check without draconian measures elsewhere.
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We don’t have enough testing capacity, so draconian measures are necessary. They aren’t “guesses” either.
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They're not guesses, but the projections are based on macro-scale assumptions about humans' ability to intervene and how effective that can be. Taiwan, PRC, SK and Singapore are currently bucking those assumptions.
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