My guess is the deaths are really going to start in the next week or two.
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Right. At a certain scale we can make fairly educated projections about what the cause of death is. We all prefer testing everyone! That we’re not is a humanitarian crime.
Early on, a commentator suggested calling it "Wuhan syndrome" and looking at it as an affliction that affects cities as much as individuals. When your hospitals are full of worsening cases of viral pneumonia and you have to diagnose by running ten CTs an hour you have Wuhan.