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jackfruitstaken's profile
JF
JF
JF
@jackfruitstaken

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JF

@jackfruitstaken

Jackfruit from the Internet. "Ein Tier, das nur in der Gesellschaft sich vereinzeln kann." - Marx "Blam[es] on his boots the faults of his feet." - Beckett

Joined June 2009

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 Mar 2020

      I very respectfully disagree with the estimate of 100k #COVID19 infections in Ohio put forth by the @OHdeptofhealth. As far as I can ascertain from the press coverage (https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus …), this number comes from extrapolating from 2 community cases detected. 1/5

      131 replies 708 retweets 1,807 likes
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    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 Mar 2020

      A couple simple ways to think about this estimate. On one hand, we believe that Wuhan had roughly 100k infections on Feb 1 (via @MRC_Outbreak report 7 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ …). 2/5

      8 replies 31 retweets 204 likes
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    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 Mar 2020

      Wuhan as a city had seen 1000 severe cases and 300 deaths at this point (https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ ). Thus, given the severity of this disease I don't see how it's possible to reach 100k infections and not notice it in deaths and hospitalizations. 3/5

      22 replies 39 retweets 503 likes
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    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 Mar 2020

      Another way to look at this is that it took the virus from ~Nov 1 to Feb 1 to reach 100k infections in Wuhan. This is ~90 days. Thus, it would have had to have been circulating in Ohio since mid-Dec for this to be the case, which is almost certainly not the case. 4/5

      24 replies 41 retweets 372 likes
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    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 Mar 2020

      I don't doubt community spread is happening Ohio and it's highly difficult to do these prevalence estimates well without wider surveillance efforts, but I think this is certainly a strong overestimate. 5/5

      17 replies 40 retweets 396 likes
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      JF‏ @jackfruitstaken 12 Mar 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      If it's a calculated lie it could be a masterstroke of public health policy

      7:30 PM - 12 Mar 2020
      • 1 Like
      • K8lyn
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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