Nikolai Yakovenko

Reasons people play poker: •Escape reality •Make $$$ •De-stress from work/family •Socialize •Crush souls •Get out of the house •Excuse to drink •Lose $$$ •Challenge of getting better •Hang with friends •Make more $$$ •Create new reality

The #1 cause of startup death is making something no one wants. The #2 cause is spending too much. Those two account for so many deaths that I'm not even sure what #3 is. If you merely make something people want and don't spend too much, you're way ahead.

I've bet every Super Bowl ever played. My smallest bet was 20k. My biggest bet was 200k. I usually bet the underdog, including this year. Go 49er's.

The field is already self-correcting. Good departments/labs are clearing their eyes, caring less about paper count, seeing through the noise. Don't worry so much about the ICML deadline. Slow down, relax, try to do work you're proud of, submit when it's ready.

Consumer is tough Because churn rates are high Which means LTV is low Which means CAC must be very low Which means that growth must be organic/viral Which generally requires new platforms or other viral vectors Which are rare. But magical when it happens.

Throwing out a prediction for the 20s: the question of what’s a tech company will become meaningless

Some stories rarely get told: * Startups that turn down a big M&A offer and fizzle out in obscurity years later * VC firms that can’t raise the next fund * Founders who fail and never quite recover professionally Behind the scenes, things are even harder than people think.