Usually when someone has no knowledge about something, the humble and correct thing to do is to admit that you don’t know.
But there is a school of thought that it is virtuous to assign probabilities to all uncertainty.
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Even on subjects where you are an expert, many of your subjective probability estimates may have little value
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Replying to @itaisher
Even on topics where you are an expert, how valuable are your own subjective probabilities?
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"I don't know" and "on the one hand... on the other..." can be a cop-out tho :)
econ.uni-bonn.de/micro/en/szala
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You can put a number on zero knowledge. It's when you assign 50/50 probability to the proposition being true/false.
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Do I know who will be the de-facto leader of the Chinese gov in 20 years? No.
Would i be willing to bet that it will not be Pope Francis? Sure.
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