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Think of some subject you have no knowledge of: maybe some subfield of physics or politics in another country or some aspect of medicine.
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Someone comes to you, gives you a bunch of statements about this subject that you are clueless about and asks you to assign numerical probabilities. The virtuous thing to do is to assign numbers rather than say “I have no clue”?
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Imagine that you are interviewed on tv and the interviewer moves away from your expertise area to an area you know nothing about but insists that you give numerical probabilities. Should you comply?
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Now think of something you are an expert on. Are the subjective probabilities of people who have no clue about it of any use?
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Even on subjects where you are an expert, many of your subjective probability estimates may have little value
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Replying to @itaisher
Even on topics where you are an expert, how valuable are your own subjective probabilities?
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You can put a number on zero knowledge. It's when you assign 50/50 probability to the proposition being true/false.
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Suppose A logically implies B but not vice versa You know nothing about either. What probability do you assign to A? What probability do you assign to B?
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Do I know who will be the de-facto leader of the Chinese gov in 20 years? No. Would i be willing to bet that it will not be Pope Francis? Sure.
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