So far, my back of the napkin map shows... a tie
#scowispic.twitter.com/OYnjkWMtL5
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With Rock (Janesville) in, Neubauer regains some standingpic.twitter.com/n1ks5h9mNB
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Good performance in St. Croix for her but a slight under in Fond du Lac. Model says .2% victory for her
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With latest AP drop, Neubauer runs just ahead of benchmark in rurals, and especially in Green County (just south of Madison so within its orbit). By 1.7% is new projection, but that prob gives her too much, model doesn't take WOW underperformance into account as much as it should
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CRUCIAL WAUKESHA 100% in, she underperforms by 2.8, but she's outperforming benchmark throughout rural Wisconsin, not just in Kind's district. Given what's left, I'd give a tiiiny edge to Neubauer. Hagedorn has room for more margin in Sheboygan, Green Lake, and Rusk
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There aren't really places for Neubauer to gain margin, just hope the 6,000 vote lead she has holds... this is a real nailbiter
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Looking like Hagedorn should be able to get what he needs out of remaining rural counties, unless of course the few outstanding pcts in Dane are huge or there's uncounted ballots in Milwaukee again
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End of conversation
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What are the rules for an automatic recount?
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Is a free recount if the margin is 0.25% or less
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