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  1. 30. sij

    Is today a good day to short the debt-free protein company with double-digit CAGR EPS and dividend growth over the past 30 years? Surely there's an easier way to make money, but 15% of the float is short, so what do I know?

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  2. 30. sij
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  3. 30. sij

    A mall REITs. 3 options: 1. they're all cheap, and bounce back hard 2. they're all struggling, is about to get flushed 3. balance sheets matter, maintains its premium Place your bets.

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij
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    28. sij

    It was a complete fantasy that suddenly everyone could afford a private driver, servants fetching food, and assistants running errands without workers being exploited AND simultaneously creating multi-billion dollar gig-app companies. Complete fucking fantasy.

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    So here’s the kicker: You cannot profitably deliver food over a 10 mile distance for $5. A 10-mile delivery must at MINIMUM cost $5.80 for mileage, ~$7 for driver time, and let’s say $3.84 (+30%) for company overhead = ~$17. Would you pay that much for delivery of food?

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  7. 28. sij

    Remember when exporting natural gas was going to be a silver bullet for ailing gas producers? Yeah... about that...

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    - It's not just the malls... Non-mall BKs/closings crush 2020 outlook Tenant store closings (sq ft) 2018 126K 2019 198K 2020 650K (Guidance) SS NOI 2019 down 70bps 2020 down 750bps (guidance) Historical occupancy:

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    27. sij

    Thread: Public health with Chinese characteristics

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  10. 24. sij

    The irony of the huge short in Hormel (15% of float, 18 days to cover). They bet on swine fever in China to knock down the stock, instead a different virus is causing safe-haven buying. Maybe don't short superbly-run companies with no debt?

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    24. sij

    Some companies could plausibly benefit from coronavirus. Here are some that won't: building products co w/ only 11% of revs from masks no published data, no connection, pumped into disputed offering promote w/bonds at distressed levels puff PR into offering

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  12. 24. sij

    Check out the A+ capital allocation at this value investor favorite.

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    24. sij

    Roads in Wuhan still quite busy today with plenty of private cars, trucks and taxis around. One local man said hes worried but no need to panic, as only a small minority are infected and the virus generally only been fatal for elderly people so far. Sounds sensible.

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    24. sij

    Seen some online reports of food shortages in Wuhan amid panic shopping. But there's no sign of that at all at this supermarket in the city center

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    Fun fact: By 2020, had gathered 600+ reservations for its sub-orbital "spaceish" flight By 1985, Pan Am had gathered 90,002 reservations for flights to the moon.

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    22. sij
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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    When someone says this market is just like 1999, it helps to mention that in 1999 there were 546 IPOs and their average first-day price gain was 68%. Stuff needs to get a lot crazier in a hurry to merit the comparison.

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  18. 20. sij
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  19. 19. sij

    Natural gas down 7% tonight, new multi-year lows. If you're long and other Appalachia drillers, what's the plan here? Nat gas could go up 50% from here and the creditors let alone equity would still be underwater.

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  20. 19. sij

    What price would you pay for a REIT that buys restaurant buildings of staid chains like Chili's and Red Lobster next to struggling American malls? If you said 21x FFO and a 4.2% dividend yield, congrats.

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