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iowahawkblog's profile
David Burge
David Burge
David Burge
@iowahawkblog

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David Burge

@iowahawkblog

Karma's janitor

ATX / CHI
dcids.substack.com
Joined May 2010

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    1. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      Today: "wow, the polls were pretty far off, maybe we should have taken them with a grain of salt." Next Tuesday: "Here's Nate Entrails with a deep dive analysis of the latest tracking numbers from the NBS-Squippippinac Approve-O-Meter"

      42 replies 376 retweets 2,423 likes
      Show this thread
    2. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      I guess it's time for my quadrennial rant on sampling statistics.

      10 replies 21 retweets 235 likes
      Show this thread
    3. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      Sampling statistics have a long and proud history in all kinds of applications, from medical studies to manufacturing to agriculture, and yes, for a while, in politics.

      1 reply 8 retweets 158 likes
      Show this thread
    4. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      For example, suppose you had a widget factory and wanted to know what percent of the widgets coming off the line are defective. Let's say testing for defects was very expensive, or involved destroying the widget. Obviously you can't test every single widget.

      4 replies 5 retweets 125 likes
      Show this thread
    5. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      The answer is random sampling, which gives you both an estimate of the % of defects, and a "margin of error" (confidence interval) that decreases asymptotically with the size of your sample. Mathemagically, you don't have to have a very big sample to get a very tight estimate.

      8 replies 5 retweets 150 likes
      Show this thread
    6. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      Now let's say you do a simple random sample of n=1000 widgets coming off the line, and find that 100 are defective (p=0.10). The standard error of your estimate is sqrt(p*(1-p) / n) = sqrt(0.9*0.1 / 1000) = 0.0095

      6 replies 5 retweets 109 likes
      Show this thread
    7. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      The 95% confidence interval ("margin of error") on your estimate is +/- two standard deviations (actually 1.96): 2*0.0095 = 0.019 Roughly, there's a 95% chance that your *real* widget defect rate is 10%, plus or minus 1.9%.

      4 replies 4 retweets 111 likes
      Show this thread
    8. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      If you want to get really precise and cut the margin of error in half, you'd have to quadruple your sample size; margin of error decreases proportionately with the square of n.

      9 replies 5 retweets 111 likes
      Show this thread
    9. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      This is basically the math used in political polling when you hear the term "margin of error." Most political polls are n=~1000, with a candidate's % around 50%, which if you plug into that formula above correspond to a margin of error of about 3%.

      4 replies 7 retweets 109 likes
      Show this thread
      David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

      But here's the deal: voters are not *widgets*. You can't randomly pick them off the assembly line and take them to the test bench. These kinda widgets have caller ID, may not be interested in talking to you if you get past that, and even then may be totally fucking with you.

      5:10 AM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 31 Retweets
      • 272 Likes
      • Kira Deputy Mike Murk Natalia Mittelstadt Manual and Pedal Laborer Orwell’s Face Stomping Boot Prodigal Patriot Al Stamm Engwmn El Barstardo
      10 replies 31 retweets 272 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          Political pollster are loath to report how many calls they have to make to harvest one usable poll response, but from what I've discerned it's somewhere between 7-15, which naturally leads one to question how weird are these widgets who volunteered to be tested.

          8 replies 42 retweets 245 likes
          Show this thread
        3. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          This wasn't much of a issue in 1968 or 1976, when people universally had a big avocado landline phone in their kitchen, and would always answer even if they had no idea who was calling.

          8 replies 13 retweets 221 likes
          Show this thread
        4. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          I mean, pollsters are kind of aware of these issues and know that their raw sample results are demographically skewed. For instance, the sample may be 3% Hispanic males 18-45, where the census says they are 5% of the population; the answer is to shrug and weigh them up by 5/3.

          1 reply 4 retweets 106 likes
          Show this thread
        5. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          It's one thing to reweigh your sample so it's roughly demographically similar to the underlying population. It's another thing to reweigh your sample to be representative of the vast majority of people who *don't want to be sampled*.

          6 replies 13 retweets 177 likes
          Show this thread
        6. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          Please note I am not ascribing any nefarious motives or biases to pollsters. Even if they were all 100% committed to accuracy, there's no easy way around this issue.

          16 replies 9 retweets 125 likes
          Show this thread
        7. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          I will say that reporting a "margin of error" as if the 10-15% of chatty weirdos who wanted to talk to you are representative of the general public is, well, mathematical malpractice.

          3 replies 42 retweets 288 likes
          Show this thread
        8. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          It's not that the political polls are *wrong* per se, it's that they no longer contain any useful information at all.

          8 replies 26 retweets 255 likes
          Show this thread
        9. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          I'm sure there will be a few polls now touted as "nailing" the election; keep in mind if you assembled election predictions from 100 astrologers and phrenologists and circus seals, you'd also probably get a few amazingly accurate guesses too.

          12 replies 44 retweets 297 likes
          Show this thread
        10. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          In short, until there is some way for the political polling biz to prove it has solve its inherent here's-what-the-weirdos-say problem, the only place polls should be reported is on Page 15D, between the Daily Horoscope and Garfield.

          7 replies 24 retweets 246 likes
          Show this thread
        11. David Burge‏ @iowahawkblog 4 Nov 2020

          Just to be safe though: if you accidentally answer a call from a political pollster, remember it is your sacred duty as an American citizen to lie your ass off.

          6 replies 51 retweets 355 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation

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