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inthehands's profile
Paul Cantrell
Paul Cantrell
Paul Cantrell
@inthehands

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Paul Cantrell

@inthehands

Composer, pianist, programmer, professor, rabble rouser, redhead • Comp sci @macalester, dev @teambustout, artistic direc @newruckusmn, creator @siestaframework

Minneapolis  ·  he or they
innig.net
Joined March 2010

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    1. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

      This article about the alarming new COVID outbreak now under way MN ends with the vexing observation that @GovTimWalz is still in the process of ••lifting•• NPIs — large sports & entertainment venues reopening Thursday, work from home lifted the 15th.https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-covid-19-hospitalizations-back-above-400/600040666/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      Show this thread
      Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

      A @zeynep-ish thought I’ve been mulling over: Clear predefined thresholds for closing & reopening have been notably absent. States, cities, schools have all preferred nuanced decisions. In hindsight, this looks like a mistake. We’ve been far too slow to close •and• reopen.

      8:06 AM - 1 Apr 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 25 Likes
      • Shabby Tigers Henry Stern political interloper Vanessa Chris Wilson jd 3Dogs2Many Laura Ehrig 🌎💙 jlove.eth 🎈
      2 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

          It’s not hard to imagine how lack of predefined thresholds makes it easy to stay open too long, then stay closed too long. When a governing body or expert panel has to make the decision, there is always a bias against change. Rocking the boat is hard.

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

          If otoh everyone sees the closure coming weeks in advance as cases rise — or can anticipate a reopening as cases fall — it’s easier for officials just to say, “Well, that’s the plan and we’re sticking to it!” And I imagine it’s easier for people to accept change they anticipate.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        4. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

          Yes, there are big advantages to situational, nuanced expert consensus. Political pressure easily overwhelms those advantages. Witness now health officials sounds alarm bells — there’s your actual expert consensus! — as the politically constrained Governor muddles onward anyway.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        5. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

          Better to come up with specific, quantified, predefined default settings — “predefined” is key! — then require nuanced expert consensus to deviate from those defaults. This doesn’t just apply to pandemics. I’d like to see spending and tax rates linked in a similar way.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        6. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

          My heuristic here is: “Create policy so that the passive choice is as likely as possible to be a good choice.”

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021

          Paul Cantrell Retweeted Zoë McLaren, PhD

          An incisive observation: fear of change → larger response lag → larger swings → worse outcomeshttps://twitter.com/ZoeMcLaren/status/1377646071707541512 …

          Paul Cantrell added,

          Zoë McLaren, PhD @ZoeMcLaren
          Replying to @zeynep
          It's a classic control theory problem. R is inherently unstable (the pandemic yo-yo) and relying on a delayed trigger (political leaders) amplifies swings and is sub-optimal. Quicker closing means quicker re-opening. It's the circuit breaker idea.
          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Buzzkill‏ @mrgrimm 1 Apr 2021
          Replying to @inthehands @zeynep

          Perhaps even more broadly, government officials prefer these half-hearted efforts because they're scared of being wrong and held accountable.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Paul Cantrell‏ @inthehands 1 Apr 2021
          Replying to @mrgrimm

          I tend to think that most government officials (hardly all, but far more than the people imagine) truly want to do what’s best. Hearts are mostly in the right place. But hearts are up against a lot of pressure, and…

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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