The past week was one of the most joyous – and scary – of my life. (a 🧵)
I gave birth to my daughter and my heart grew several sizes.
Then the “silent killer” after childbirth hit me and I nearly died.
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Heather Long
@byHeatherLong
economic columnist and Editorial Board member | Data aficionado | Email: Heather.long@washpost.com
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Key takeaways from a great December job report:
1) 4.5 million jobs added in 2022.
2) Job growth is slowing, but not much
3) Unemployment rate 3.5% (lowest in 53 years)
4) Labor force is growing! +2.6 million in 2022
5) Wages +4.6% in past year. That's slowing...which Fed wants
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Revisions to average hourly earnings data paint a marginally less worrisome picture for the Fed on wages than the Nov report
The upturn in wage growth in Nov (originally reported as +0.6%) was revised (to +0.4%)
The 4.6% annual wage growth in Dec was the lowest since Aug '21
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Early warning signs that jobs are cooling off:
1) Employment in temporary help services declined by -35,000 over the month and has fallen by -111,000 since July.
2) Information jobs (tech/publishing) declined (see below)
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Another strong jobs report
The economy added 223,000 jobs in December, beating expectations and only a slight slowdown from 256k in Nov.
**The US gained 4.5 million jobs in 2022, making it one of the best years of job growth ever (behind 2021)**
Unemployment rate = 3.5%
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Today is my 32nd birthday.
Over the last month, I asked several 90-year-olds what advice they would give to their 32-year-old selves.
Here's the life advice everyone needs to hear:
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BREAKING: The FTC, Lina Khan have proposed a rule to ban noncompete clauses for all workers in the United States.
The rule could send shock waves across a wide range of industries, where economists says companies have artificially suppressed worker pay.
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What a work of art.
This is the 2023 Pennsylvania Farm Show butter sculpture. (Yes, it is made entirely of butter).
It’s an annual tradition in Pa. More info here from
pennlive.com/farm-show/2023
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Pay hikes are starting to slow, ADP data shows. That's a good sign for lower inflation and the Fed.
Leisure & hospitality workers are still getting over 10% pay increases, but that's down from nearly 17% in March.
It will be interesting to see BLS data on Friday.
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Payroll processor ADP says the median pay raise last year for people who stayed in current job = 7.3%
The pay raise for people who switched jobs = 15.2%
(Note that inflation was ~7% in the past year)
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This is the three-month rolling average of employed workers who are not at work due to child care issues. It spikes at the start of the pandemic, declines slowly for two years, and then starts spiking again in April 2022.
We are at levels now not seen since the fall of 2020.
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November JOLTS are out, and really shows stability in the job market rather than meaningful deterioration.
Job openings rate unchanged.
Hires rate ticks down.
Quits rate ticks up.
Layoffs/discharge rate unchanged.
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As and point out, wage/income/wealth inequality declined in recent years. But one form of inequality has continued to increase: geographic inequality.
The spread in per capita incomes between richer and poorer metros resumed its climb in 2021.
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Communities can either pay more to attract and retain educators or they can lower their standards.
The better solution is obvious, writes:
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It's official: US stocks just finished their worst year since 2008.
S&P 500: -19.4% for 2022
Dow: -8.8%
Nasdaq: -33.1%
But...keep in mind: The S&P 500 is +43.6% in the past five years, which is on par with the historical average.
washingtonpost.com/business/inter
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Proud that my 1st TV hit after maternity leave is on America’s (ongoing) teacher shortage.
We can either raise pay for teachers or lower the standards. Let’s choose wisely
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/
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Great clock. Nice dove. Lovely afternoon light. Raise camera height slightly/reframe. 9/10 @byHeatherLong
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Most big banks are predicting a "mild" recession in 2023. (Note: The consensus forecast is often wrong)
Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley say the US will narrowly avoid a recession.
washingtonpost.com/business/2022/ via
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"Southwest put investors ahead of its customers and employees" -WaPo Editorial Board
#Southwest had plenty of $$ to upgrade its outdated IT.
Instead, the airline...
-Restarted its $428 million/yr dividend
-Took over $7bn in gov't aid
-Gave execs bonuses
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From the Washington Post Editorial Board: We asked an AI bot hundreds of questions. Here’s what we learned.
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in the 1990s, teachers earned about 5% less than their educated peers.
now it's 25% less, while Target pays up to $24 an hour to start.
no wonder there's a teacher shortage!
now, writes , maybe it's time to collect better data on it!?
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The truth about America’s teacher shortage:
There is a shortage, but it’s not nationwide. It’s far worse in high poverty areas and in certain subjects/positions:
-special education
-computer science
-foreign language
-custodians
-bus drivers
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Poor disabled people applying for benefits from (and the $ is paltry) are often denied because the agency says they can still work at jobs that are virtually obsolete in America. Federal courts have put SSA on notice
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Americans often claim they will move to Canada when things get too bad politically (or otherwise).
The truth?
Americans are far more likely to move to Mexico.
Another fascinating analysis from
washingtonpost.com/business/2022/
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Our end-of-the-year podcast with , , and is out! We look back at the biggest surprises, major themes, most underreported and overreported stories, mea culpas, and biggest issues ahead. It was a lot of fun. directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/ (1/3)
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Merry Christmas to all! (And cheers to cartoonist Susan Dewar for perfectly capturing #Christmas 2022 …
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NEW: Senate passes $1.7 trillion omnibus, a sweeping package that boosts domestic and defense spending with many policy riders, from Medicaid expansion to TikTok ban, teeing it up for House
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If you really like and enjoy your parents and want to be around them as an adult, what did they do when you were a kid/what do they do now to make that the case?
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I'm proud to support , the non-profit org for business & economic journalists.
I look forward to connecting with more biz journos in 2023 and mentoring more students. The economy impacts everyone. It's a powerful beat to cover!
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What a headline: DEA this year seized enough deadly fentanyl to kill every person in the US.
Illegal fentanyl is the leading cause of death for Americans ages 18-49.
The drug now claims more lives in the US than car accidents, gun violence or suicides
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Good point (and yes, this criticism goes for both Ds and Rs).
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Annual reminder that it's insane for Congress to procrastinate all year, and then days before Christmas shove a full year's legislation into one 4,155-page, $2 trillion bill that no one has time to read and no one can offer amendments, under the threat of government shutdown.
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NEW: Congress unveils $1.7 trillion bill to fund govt, known as omnibus. Includes:
-$44.9b for Ukraine
-Big boosts for defense, some domestic programs
-Policies on pandemic readiness, Medicaid benefits, a ban TikTok on gov devices, Electoral Count Act
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America's biggest banks have in recent years promised to do more to address inequality and the racial wealth gap.
So how are they doing? We took a look at mortgage data for the latest Big Take:
bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-
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How is Ukraine beating Russia?
A: Ukraine has superior battlefield technology -- better maps, thermal imaging and drones
"With these systems aiding brave Ukrainian troops, the Russians probably cannot win this war," writes
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This is one of the most read stories on WaPo and I highly recommend.
"The most popular people names for dogs are..."
Type in your name (or your dog's) and find out how common it is among humans and canines.
washingtonpost.com/business/inter via
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One of the biggest problems in the US economy is we don't have enough legal immigrants.
Trump made it harder to enter.
The pandemic exacerbated processing issues
The result = The US is down ~1.7 million immigrants
washingtonpost.com/business/2022/ via
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Scoop here: Some Ukrainian officials privately sounded out allies about an income support program of ~$50/month for 6 months as they face a humanitarian crisis
The reception was chilly -- basically a no -- as Ukrainians were told there'd be no appetite
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Not 1 question for Fed Chair Powell today about ethics problems.
Note that & have written a bill to:
1. Make the 12 regional Fed banks subject to FOIA
2. Make Fed IG a presidential appointee
3. Ensure Fed answers ethics Qs
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