We need a new philosophy of progress for the 21st century. One that teaches people not to take the modern world for granted. One that acknowledges the problems of progress, and offers solutions. And one that holds up a positive vision of the future
The Roots of Progress
@rootsofprogress
We need a new philosophy of progress for the 21st century.
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rootsofprogress.orgJoined April 2017
The Roots of Progress’s Tweets
If a technology may introduce catastrophic risks, how do you develop it?
The Wright Brothers' approach to inventing the airplane is one case study:
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“The man who wishes to keep at the problem long enough to really learn anything positively must not take dangerous risks. Carelessness and overconfidence are usually more dangerous than deliberately accepted risks.”
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• & on AI
• on national development
• on Roman peasants
• on steam technology
• on a Caribbean charter city
• the illusion of moral decline
• turnspit dogs
• and more
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We shouldn’t be against AI safety any more than we are against seat belts, fire alarms, or drug trials.
Why confronting AI risks is important even for optimists:
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• 's UK Great Stagnation summit
• 's $1M in cybersecurity grants
• 's new magazine about future tech
• tours the Extropian archives
• on Orwell vs. progress
• on Coasean democracy
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Samuel Butler's *Erewhon* (1872) inspired Dune's “Butlerian jihad”
H. G. Wells anticipated the need for the motor car; Norman Bel Geddes had a vision for highways that would let you drive safely at 100mph
This and much more in my June reading list:
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What cadence do you prefer for a links digest?
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Explain/comment in the replies
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• issue 11
• interviews Richard Rhodes
• human clinical study
• announces two nuclear sites
• on GPT-4 in Minecraft
• on degrowth
• and more
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“In order to make progress, we must believe that it is possible & desirable. The 19th century believed in the power of technology & industry to better humanity, but in the 20th century, this belief gave way to skepticism & distrust. We need a new way forward.”
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We were aiming for the stars.
But something has changed.
As our guest @jasoncrawford has pointed out, we have lost our optimism.
Progress itself has become something to be feared.
What happened?
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I had the pleasure of talking to for the podcast.
We discussed whether humans deserve progress, how to make progress cool, the two types of optimism, and more:
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Robert Allen's explanation for the Industrial Revolution is that Britain had high wages and cheap energy, which made it profitable for them to industrialize.
This doesn’t sit right with me. Here are some thoughts on why
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Our episode with founder & president is now live!
We discuss:
🤔 Why we need progress studies
😎 How can we make progress cool?
🍀 The two types of optimism
🧯 Safety & progress
🙅♂️ How can we defend against bad actors?
♾ MORE!
Here’s a preview:
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• “Building a Better NIH” from , &
• to head infrastructure initiative
• New book from &
• Blueprint for a new Great Exhibition by
• and more
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Imagine you could go back in time to the ancient world to jump-start the Industrial Revolution.
You carry with you plans for a steam engine, and you present them to the emperor, explaining how the machine could be used at mines, mills, blast furnaces, etc.
But to your dismay…
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To explain the Industrial Revolution, economic historians like Mokyr emphasize factors that promote the *supply* of innovation, such as science and education. But where does *demand* for innovation come from? And what if demand for innovation is low?
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• sold some fusion energy
• interviews
• on creating new lakes in the desert
• 's new book
• on an mRNA-based cancer treatment
• Vision Weekend 2023
• and more
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I did an intro to progress studies for Learning Night Boston with : Why study progress, and why do we need a new philosophy of progress? Plus a few minutes of Q&A. (Poor audio quality, sorry)
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We eradicated smallpox for less than it costs to build one mile of subway today in NYC
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Very cool chart showing all the American megaprojects and grand programs over the last century.
We need more of these!
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• on Smallpox Eradication Day
• on nuclear costs
• : “get on the progress train”
• 's “alternative path for society”
• on personal AI agents
• on the Stanford Torus
• and much more
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Featuring books and articles from , , , , , and . Also, Bertrand Russell debates J. B. S. Haldane
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In the wake of disaster, a common reaction is to add a review and approval process. But I now believe that the review-and-approval model is broken, and we should find better ways to manage risk and create safety
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- on a Starship relaunch
- and on nuclear
- recruiting “field strategists”
- on AI as a complex system
- on the virtues of steam
- on living in a space torus
- and more
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Quote quiz: who said this?
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- $10k Atlas Fellowship for high schoolers
- hiring a researcher
- on intelligence superabundance
- on IRBs, also AI risk
- on mosquitoes, also Costco
- Freeman Dyson on AI, also nuclear power
- & more
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In Boston on May 1, I’ll be giving a short talk on progress studies for Learning Night, hosted by
“Like a casual version of TED talks with a diverse group of interesting folks in a freeform jam of ideas and stories you’ve probably not heard before”
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“No man, however bold or however high he may stand in his profession, can resist the benumbing effect of rules laid down by authority.”
Isambard K. Brunel on the need for “the free exercise of engineering skill”:
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• hiring for an “AI/rationalism/x-risk” project
• has a solutionist third way on AI safety
• Jack Devanney on how ALARA makes nuclear expensive
• clarifies a key difference in thinking on AI x-risk
• and more
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I was interviewed by for Dialogues podcast
We talked about progress, stagnation, agency, technocracy, central planning, solutionism, and whether the 21st century will belong to Canada 😄
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Bryan Bishop (), “biohacker and programmer”, doing an AMA on the
Bryan is a contributor to Bitcoin and has also worked on projects in molecular biology and genetic engineering. Ask him anything! Answering tomorrow (Weds):
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What I've been reading lately: Turing and other historical perspectives on AI, Alvin Toffler on “future shock,” Verner Vinge on the Singularity, How Complex Systems Fail, 's The Decadent Society, on the Extropians, and more
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What's the best sci-fi about AI to read at this moment in history?
Want to expand my thinking about AI, what it can do, how it might change things, etc.
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Technological change comes ever faster and faster. Will we therefore find it ever more difficult to adapt? Or have we actually been getting *better* at adapting, even relative to the pace of change?
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• Wizards and prophets of AI
• AMAs with and
• is hiring a software eng
• wants to meet people doing alignment
• on NEPA reform and supersonic
• on AI
• and more
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A common worry is that as technological change accelerates, it will begin to go faster than we can keep up with it, and we won't be able to adapt to change.
But have we been getting worse over time at adapting to change? Haven't we actually been getting *better* at it?
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The most important issue in the AI safety debate right now is not *what* the risks of AI are (object level), but how we should even approach the problem (meta level).
And the biggest question is rationalism vs. empiricism.
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All powerful new technologies create both benefits and risks. AI will create both extraordinary benefits and extraordinary risks.
What are the risks? Here are several lenses for thinking about AI risks, each putting AI in a different reference class
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Mark is the author of the forthcoming book *The Trajectory of Discovery: What Determines the Rate and Direction of Medical Progress?*, and he's doing an AMA on the today! Ask him your questions at the link below:
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Doing an AMA on the Progress Forum (@rootsofprogress) on Monday! Feel free to post any questions you might have about the book or medical progress more broadly at the link below
progressforum.org/posts/QEtKhjiL
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