Has VC Become So Big It Must Be Disrupted? https://tomtunguz.com/is-venture-capital-worth-the-risk/ … Wrong question. Right question: Have VC cash flows become sufficiently predictable that they can be efficiently monetized and traded in a public format? There are several conditions to this being true 1/
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Scale. AUM has to be large enough that when you PV the expected cash flows on a probability adjusted basis, you get a multi-billion $ valuation. Otherwise, it's not worth it. 3/
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Publicly traded comps. Blackstone, Apollo, and Fortress before them all had these characteristics: Predictability. Multi-product. Scale. They just started from the private equity product and expanded across products and cap structure. No reason a multi-stage VC couldn't do it. x/
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