Coincidentally (?) @DRMacIver was writing about this earlier:https://notebook.drmaciver.com/posts/2020-02-25-10:39.html …
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Coincidental, yes! That post has been vaguely simmering for a few days and today happened to be the day it made it into the daily notebook posts.
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Replying to @DRMacIver @GeniesLoki and
donmexlar 🐇 Retweeted donmexlar 🐇
https://twitter.com/donmexlar/status/1229205200814166017?s=21 …https://twitter.com/donmexlar/status/1229205200814166017 …
donmexlar 🐇 added,
donmexlar 🐇 @donmexlarReplying to @cosimia_ @brazen_cabezai’ve been thinking about decisionmaking a lot; i’ve started believing that we often feel like the difference between two decisions will make our life diverge like the top graph, but in reality its the bottom graph, especially when something seems like a close call pic.twitter.com/IhEd2YhbKI1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @donmexlar @GeniesLoki and
I think reality is weirder than that: Many seemingly irrelevant decisions *do* make our lives diverge like the top graph, it's just that we can't tell which ones those are in advance and often it's not the better decision which has the better result when that happens.
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Replying to @DRMacIver @donmexlar and
Our actual life paths are too contingent and build on too many small events whose significance gets amplified by circumstance. But I agree with the basic principle if you make it about expected value.
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Replying to @DRMacIver @donmexlar and
Fork From Home Retweeted Arnaldo Rodriguez-Gonzalez
Quite often small perturbations are averaged-out into similar trajectories (paths). But sometimes these small perturbations are amplified! Here is a nice demonstration for the simple system of a double pendulum:https://twitter.com/Arnaldo_AGITF/status/1229162547577835522?s=20 …
Fork From Home added,
Arnaldo Rodriguez-Gonzalez @Arnaldo_AGITFIf you pop the hood and look at them in phase space, you'll find the usual culprit: they went near a saddle point, where the arrows look like X's. Saddles are really good at causing chaos, and you can often predict when chaos "begins" by predicting when you'll hit the saddle. pic.twitter.com/wKkw4rtJVSShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @BonbonFork @DRMacIver and
The claim in the linked tweet is that this amplification of differences between possible paths happens if you are near a saddle point in the phase space. I'm not sure how to translate it into everyday insight. Maybe: perturbations can be amplified in unstable situations? (bland)
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Replying to @BonbonFork @DRMacIver and
Saddle points are where a slight difference in direction causes the biggest change in movement. There's some vague tie-in to daoism here somewhere.
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Replying to @imhinesmi @DRMacIver and
Yes! But can we forge some everyday-grade wisdom from this? Also, please elaborate on daoism!
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Replying to @BonbonFork @DRMacIver and
Lots of the dao de ching is about waiting until the right moment to do things, when you have the most leverage and need the least effort to move things. So there are certain (saddle) points where poking something moves it a lot. You shouldn't try to move things outside them. ...
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... It's a waste of time & effort to try. Instead, learn to spot the right moments and move things then.
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