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imhinesmi's profile
ian hines
ian hines
ian hines
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ian hines

@imhinesmi

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    1. Adam Alethier  🌊‏ @AdamAlethier Feb 25
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      Replying to @BonbonFork

      The first part of making a good decision is to decide how much time is reasonable to spend making said decision.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Fork From Home‏ @BonbonFork Feb 25
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      Replying to @AdamAlethier

      I agree! I think most people apply this rule in their lives at intuitive level. I think this can be improved, but maybe the risk of overthinking and over-complicating is too large? What are your rules/heuristics in this regard?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Adam Alethier  🌊‏ @AdamAlethier Feb 25
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      Replying to @BonbonFork

      This is basically it. Deciding on a reasonable time frame for a decision based on how consequential and urgent it is. Then I select (or build) a fitting model for making the decision, and execute it. Flipping a coin can sometimes be that model.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. GeniesLoki‏ @GeniesLoki Feb 25
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      Replying to @AdamAlethier @BonbonFork

      Coincidentally (?) @DRMacIver was writing about this earlier:https://notebook.drmaciver.com/posts/2020-02-25-10:39.html …

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. David R. MacIver‏ @DRMacIver Feb 25
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      Replying to @GeniesLoki @AdamAlethier @BonbonFork

      Coincidental, yes! That post has been vaguely simmering for a few days and today happened to be the day it made it into the daily notebook posts.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. donmexlar  🐇‏ @donmexlar Feb 25
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      Replying to @DRMacIver @GeniesLoki and

      donmexlar  🐇 Retweeted donmexlar  🐇

      https://twitter.com/donmexlar/status/1229205200814166017?s=21 …https://twitter.com/donmexlar/status/1229205200814166017 …

      donmexlar  🐇 added,

      donmexlar  🐇 @donmexlar
      Replying to @cosimia_ @brazen_cabeza
      i’ve been thinking about decisionmaking a lot; i’ve started believing that we often feel like the difference between two decisions will make our life diverge like the top graph, but in reality its the bottom graph, especially when something seems like a close call pic.twitter.com/IhEd2YhbKI
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. David R. MacIver‏ @DRMacIver Feb 25
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      Replying to @donmexlar @GeniesLoki and

      I think reality is weirder than that: Many seemingly irrelevant decisions *do* make our lives diverge like the top graph, it's just that we can't tell which ones those are in advance and often it's not the better decision which has the better result when that happens.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. David R. MacIver‏ @DRMacIver Feb 25
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      Replying to @DRMacIver @donmexlar and

      Our actual life paths are too contingent and build on too many small events whose significance gets amplified by circumstance. But I agree with the basic principle if you make it about expected value.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Fork From Home‏ @BonbonFork Feb 25
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      Replying to @DRMacIver @donmexlar and

      Fork From Home Retweeted Arnaldo Rodriguez-Gonzalez

      Quite often small perturbations are averaged-out into similar trajectories (paths). But sometimes these small perturbations are amplified! Here is a nice demonstration for the simple system of a double pendulum:https://twitter.com/Arnaldo_AGITF/status/1229162547577835522?s=20 …

      Fork From Home added,

      Arnaldo Rodriguez-Gonzalez @Arnaldo_AGITF
      If you pop the hood and look at them in phase space, you'll find the usual culprit: they went near a saddle point, where the arrows look like X's. Saddles are really good at causing chaos, and you can often predict when chaos "begins" by predicting when you'll hit the saddle. pic.twitter.com/wKkw4rtJVS
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Fork From Home‏ @BonbonFork Feb 25
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      Replying to @BonbonFork @DRMacIver and

      The claim in the linked tweet is that this amplification of differences between possible paths happens if you are near a saddle point in the phase space. I'm not sure how to translate it into everyday insight. Maybe: perturbations can be amplified in unstable situations? (bland)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      ian hines‏ @imhinesmi Feb 25
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      Replying to @BonbonFork @DRMacIver and

      Saddle points are where a slight difference in direction causes the biggest change in movement. There's some vague tie-in to daoism here somewhere.

      7:18 AM - 25 Feb 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Fork From Home donmexlar 🐇
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Fork From Home‏ @BonbonFork Feb 25
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          Replying to @imhinesmi @DRMacIver and

          Yes! But can we forge some everyday-grade wisdom from this? Also, please elaborate on daoism!

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. ian hines‏ @imhinesmi Feb 25
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          Replying to @BonbonFork @DRMacIver and

          Lots of the dao de ching is about waiting until the right moment to do things, when you have the most leverage and need the least effort to move things. So there are certain (saddle) points where poking something moves it a lot. You shouldn't try to move things outside them. ...

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. donmexlar  🐇‏ @donmexlar Feb 25
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          Replying to @imhinesmi @BonbonFork and

          i’ve never heard of “saddle points” i want to learn more

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. ian hines‏ @imhinesmi Feb 25
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          Replying to @donmexlar @BonbonFork and

          A saddle point in a >3d graph is a point that is locally flat (technically: the derivative with respect to all variables is 0), but is neither a local max nor a local min. Typically, they look like saddles: doing a spin, you'll see the graph go up then down then up then down.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. 2 more replies

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