There's a difference between recognizing and emotionally processing the serious situation we're in (wrt climate, etc) so that we can pragmatically move forward, and betting on doom, which would be a self-fulfilling prophecy. A lot of 'rationalists' are living in fantasy land.https://twitter.com/selentelechia/status/1222336381126508544 …
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Replying to @cognazor
why would betting on doom be a self-fulfilling prophecy? seems unlikely they'd make the bet if they weren't already certain
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Replying to @selentelechia
Because then you aren't going to pragmatically move forward with your best effort despite the odds.
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Replying to @cognazor
what about the other side of the bet if people don't think doom is happening
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Replying to @selentelechia
My point is, betting doom on either side is useless and counterproductive. Not recognizing the existential seriousness of our situation is foolish, as is betting on doom
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Replying to @cognazor @selentelechia
Betting on doom is a way to say "here's what I actually think". Any emotional response can come from that, and there's no reason that betting prevents action. One might take action to help win the bet, but that should be factored in already.
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Making a bet is making a note of what exactly the "existential seriousness of our situation" is. It is saying, "I think there is an X% chance of a situation Y bad happening".
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Depending on the actual degree of doom and likelihood of it happening (i.e. exactly what bets determine), the correct response changes. Based on opportunity costs if nothing else. There's a time to think and a time to act, and the ideal rat does each in their time.
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Replying to @imhinesmi @cognazor
thanks this is the reply I couldn't articulate
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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