It's a somewhat hard theoretical problem, but if you have a physics based model that you can run...
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Replying to @davidmanheim @i_contemplate_ and
...it to compare cases with and without additional CO2, now and in the past, and see how it changes.
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Replying to @davidmanheim @i_contemplate_ and
IF the model is correct, that will tell you the relative contributions.
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Replying to @davidmanheim @i_contemplate_ and
But yes, it's possible that you can validate the model and still have things wrong in offsetting ways.
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@St_Rev's claim that it hasn't validated is semi-true of earlier models; we'll see if newer ones do better1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Yeah let's see, based on past behavior of the modelers, I'm not confident we'll see much
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Getting back to original tweet: XKCD's graph doesn't even show current 20-yr plateau.
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Replying to @St_Rev @i_contemplate_ and
His 'best-case' is also weird as hell. Dunno what he was thinking at all.
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I thought 'The Pause' was a myth?! Well I guess it was a myth when unexplained, but not anymore.
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The existence of the pause depends on if you're measuring land surface temps, or total warming.
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What does 'total warming' include apart from land surface temps? Ocean?
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Yes. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation - Wikipedia explains it decently; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus …
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