Shot, chaser
@xkcdpic.twitter.com/a2lkfDRe0C
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It's a somewhat hard theoretical problem, but if you have a physics based model that you can run...
...it to compare cases with and without additional CO2, now and in the past, and see how it changes.
IF the model is correct, that will tell you the relative contributions.
But yes, it's possible that you can validate the model and still have things wrong in offsetting ways.
& @St_Rev's claim that it hasn't validated is semi-true of earlier models; we'll see if newer ones do better
Yeah let's see, based on past behavior of the modelers, I'm not confident we'll see much
Getting back to original tweet: XKCD's graph doesn't even show current 20-yr plateau.
His 'best-case' is also weird as hell. Dunno what he was thinking at all.
It's telling that eg Mann tried desperately to massage the MWP out of existence.
Indeed, hence my hesitation in adopting even 'lukewarmism.' I wonder how much lukewarmism is driven by tendency to be 'moderates'
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