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Another R0 paper on #coronavirus comes from scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences🔬🧪—before sharing their R0 value, PLEASE do not engage in negative/conspiracy manner. We need to be very cautious of pre-pubs, given it’s not peer reviewed yet. So let’s thread lightly:
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4) ...Finally, the authors estimated a fatality rate of the coronavirus to be around 6.5% (deaths so far mostly from Wuhan). They also provide comparisons to SARS, and forecasting into the future (very unpredictable - don’t rely on these alone, as others have different forecasts)
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5) Re-emphasizing, this study’s not peer reviewed yet, and it’s odd their models show SARS mortality to be lower than the consensus ~10%. Thus, one should be skeptical of many parts of the analysis, especially for mortality forecasting.
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