I am having a great day reading Philip Snow's entertaining book on Sino-Russian relations. amazon.com/China-Russia-C. Check out this gem of a snippet below. If anyone can weigh in on this, please do.
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Finally, you are all of course super curious whether this secret information comes from. Let's check the footnote.
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For crying out loud, who is this genius John Dolfin who predicted Google Earth five years before it appeared, and even found Chinese missiles in it that pointed in Russia's direction. , help me out! 😂
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looks obvious that the correct solution to the opioid crisis is converting everyone to mormonism
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To wrap up the thread, I highly recommend this piece by @mattyglesias on the opoid crisis. anyone telling you the answer is simple isn't being honest; fentanyl is a really difficult problem, and we have more work to do to figure out how to solve it slowboring.com/p/the-opioid-c
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A somewhat Mearsheimery account of NATO enlargement in Philip Snow's China & Russia (Yale UP): amazon.com/China-Russia-C. I'll take an exception to this and say that it was more complicated than this.
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“Some of the Democratic lawyers who have appeared in Cannon’s courtroom don’t share those worries. They say that she is a smarter, more deliberate, and more even-handed judge than the early criticism of her would suggest.”
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NEW: Biden tells aides to push for Saudi Arabia & Israel to normalize relations. It’s a remarkable turnaround for Biden on MBS, who demands defense & nuclear deals. Sullivan, Blinken & McGurk went to Riyadh. w/ .
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This week, the UK government secured pledges from three leading AI labs to provide “early access” to new models. But what kind of access? What should gov't do with it?
& offer some concrete suggestions.
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“Four Battlegrounds” by , “Beyond the Wall” by , “How Westminster Works” by , “Fancy Bear Goes Phishing” by , & “Russia’s War” by immediately spring to mind.
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Let us know which books you have loved in 2023 so far – we are looking for your recommendations
on.ft.com/440xh2v
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“Prince Mohammed’s initial demands were steep: U.S. guarantees to defend Saudi Arabia from military attack, a Saudi-American partnership to enrich uranium for a civilian nuclear program and fewer restrictions on U.S. arms sales to the kingdom.”
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Can anyone help me with this because I am slightly perplexed. Still reading Philip Snow's book, amazon.com/China-Russia-C. Here's what he says on p. 459.
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What am I missing here? [This is really frustrating btw. I am especially frustrated that I can't get a hold of my copy of Deng Xiaoping Nianpu for 1974 to see what was happening in October]. But Snow isn't making things easier by these kinds of claims with misleading footnotes.
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"Where the Defense Department is investing in AI, we’re doing so in areas that provide us with the most strategic benefit and capitalize on our existing advantages." Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks penned an op-ed regarding #AI within the DoD:
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Sweden 🇸🇪 announced that it will allow Ukrainian 🇺🇦 Pilots to start test flying Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen Fighter Jets as part of its 12th Military Aid Package (Reuters)
The Saab Jas 39 Gripen are among the best multirole Fighter Jets in the world and are suitable for Ukraine
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Is the admin delaying the release of the EO on investment restrictions to avoid friction with China before Blinken arrives, as this article claims, or is this just a complex issue that requires a lot of work and coordination with allies?
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According to Yonhap Chinese, the diameter is 2.3 m, bottom diameter is 2.8 m, length 12 m, with the interstage section that fell off the length is 14.5 m.
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Tonight, both and I get to talk about the latest in Ukraine, Putin’s comments, and Lukeshenko’s bluster with , who is sitting in for . See you at 7 EDT
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“A recently completed investigation of the balloon’s debris found that Beijing’s capabilities are far more sophisticated than the U.S. had believed, said a current senior U.S. official and a former senior U.S. official briefed on the findings. “Their capabilities are… Show more
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““From planned restrictions on investment in China to declassifying intelligence about the origins of the coronavirus, the administration has been “slow walking” certain decisions in recent months as officials have sought to mend relations with Beijing, the sources said. “ twitter.com/niubi/status/1…
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How can Congress help shape U.S. policy towards Taiwan in an era of strategic competition with China? 🤝🇹🇼
Join us on 6/29 in DC for a conversation featuring , , , , and :
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I write often on Russian military personnel problems because I think it's a central issue. I will be the first to tell you that their military morale is poor in Ukraine. I still would not recommend any plan that rests on 'bad Russian morale will trigger a collapse in the front'/1
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This counteroffensive's fighting is fierce and it will get harder as the UAF approaches the Russian lines. Once they do, the dynamics are unpredictable for both. /11
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How will Russian forces fare on the defensive? There are many factors in play. Even though they've constructed many layers of defensive positions and there are forces unaccounted for in recent weeks, the morale of Russian soldiers is variable, from tired to bad -it matters. 1/11
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Better UAF tactics, better ISR, better local commanders will be to UAF's advantage when they close on Russian positions. Ukrainian commanders remain focused on their operational tasks and I haven't seen many making assumptions about Russian forces cracking on contact. /end
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The has worked for over a decade to ensure the responsible use of #AI. Now the challenge is convincing other nations, including China, to join us.
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Some thoughts from me on DoD leadership surrounding responsible development and use of military AI:
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The @DeptofDefense has worked for over a decade to ensure the responsible use of #AI. Now the challenge is convincing other nations, including China, to join us. politico.com/news/magazine/
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It's an honor to contribute my thoughts to this conversation on Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Beijing:
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Daniel Ellsberg will be mostly remembered for the Pentagon Papers, of course. But his work on psychology and probability theory was profound, important, and influential. RIP.
sites.socsci.uci.edu/~bskyrms/bio/r
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President Biden is ‘open’ to NATO SecGen Stoltenberg’s proposal of removing the Membership Action Plan requirement for Ukraine to join the alliance.
Move not a formal invite or timeline.
If allies agree, announcement likely at Vilnius summit.
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And now…
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NEW: NATO allies are mainly supportive of a Biden and Stoltenberg-backed plan to ease Ukraine's pathway to membership, making the proposal more likely to be policy at the Vilnius summit in July.
@liliebayer and I spoke to 8 officials for this story: politico.com/news/2023/06/1
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Today’s the day!
#ActionGroup #Zeitenwende
2nd Plenary Session
& Publication of 2 Policy Reports on the Zeitenwende in
- Foreign & Security Policy
- Economy & Trade
▶️So what is the Action Group Zeitenwende?
Check out this short video & the links below.
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Great. Now do Hong Kong and Xinjiang...
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#GTGraphic: US military vs Chinese military: mission of war vs mission of peace. @_ValiantPanda_
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A must watch
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Former President Barack Obama will sit down with CNN’s Chief International Anchor Christiane Amanpour for an exclusive in-depth conversation about the state of democracy cnn.it/3PpmGdc
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Berhalter didn’t deserve the brouhaha that ensued. Unwarranted.
But with the generation the #USMNT has, there was an opportunity to hire a manager to take the squad to the next level.
This re-hire doesn’t do that. It changes nothing. It’s a missed opportunity.
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Gregg Berhalter has been chosen to lead the #USMNT to the 2026 FIFA World Cup » ussoc.cr/Berhalter26
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I agree with
China has had its own reasons for seeking conquest of Taiwan for over 70 years
Xi's perception of his military’s ability to successfully execute an invasion (and allied ability to stop him) is not dependent on what happens to Russia in Ukraine
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If Ukraine loses to Russia, is Taiwan next? No.
Ukraine should be helped for its own sake, not because losing to Russia will set a "precedent" or impact the "reputation" of Ukraine's supporters.
I explain why in my latest for @WPReview.
worldpoliticsreview.com/putin-war-ukra
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Domino theories need to be relegated to the dustbin of history
US loss in Vietnam did not cause Communist takeover of Asia
US loss in Afghanistan did not cause Putin to decide to invade Ukraine (there is plenty of evidence he had been planning it for months/years prior)
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That is not to say that supporting Ukraine is not important for its own reasons but not everything in US foreign policy need to be all about China. People that are using this argument are often disingenous
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Congrats to all the #Caltech2023 grads this weekend, especially my little sister Rachel Ding! We’re so proud!
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NEW: NATO allies are mainly supportive of a Biden and Stoltenberg-backed plan to ease Ukraine's pathway to membership, making the proposal more likely to be policy at the Vilnius summit in July.
and I spoke to 8 officials for this story:
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Good piece on Russian air power during Ukraine's counter-offensive and the need for highly mobile and survivable short-range air defenses. Includes some comments from myself on Russia's use of Ka-52s.
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Nevada Republican congressional candidate David Flippo last week tweeted a photo of a makeshift hut with the caption, “This is not a village in a 3rd world country, this is the US border!”
It was actually a stock image of a hut in Botswana
politico.com/newsletters/pl
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1. U.S. policy should stem from a cold, hard assessment of U.S. national interests. It's in those interests to have some states in NATO and others not.
2. Inviting Ukraine to join the EU and supplying it with extensive military and other aid isn't yielding it to a Russian SoI.
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Replying to @james_acton32 and @stephenwertheim
On a more serious note, it looks like the world is built to serve Russian interests.
1. Why not dismantle NATO altogether, then?
2. Why do we even pretend countries should have sovereignty if Russia has its sacred "sphere of influence"?
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"Ukraine’s best path to peace is to be well armed and supported outside NATO."
A compelling argument by .
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Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by and We discuss the UA offensive, offer perspectives, and first impressions.
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An example of one of the “non-sexy” pieces of “engineering equipment” (I mentioned these several months ago) that are in the packages of Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) but don’t receive much attention: the MICLIC (Mine-Clearing Line Charge). Critical for breaching.
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Thanx for US-made de-mining systems M58 MICLIC that are in action.
Russians have mined HUGE territories trying to stop #counteroffensive
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Longest opposite-field home runs this season:
1. Shohei Ohtani, 459 ft, Monday
2. Shohei Ohtani, 453 ft, Yesterday
3. Shohei Ohtani, 443 ft, Today
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Been a fun run of stories to work on this week with and ofc the #NatSecDaily crew of .
A delight work with *everyone* on ’s natsec team.
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"Soldier's Heart."
2 decades ago, I met a unique person at West Point.
An Ivy League English Literature Professor teaching Plebes (Freshmen), Elizabeth Samet was writing a book about how cadets were facing the wars that would define their generation. 1/11
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It's relatively easy to watch this battlefield from a distance, and offer advice on what soldiers & their leaders should be doing.
I offer this 🧵to as a reminder to those who have never faced battle that it is much tougher on the battlefield than it is playing a video game. 10/
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One more thing...
Studies in combat show that units are more resilient & have the ability to better counter PTS, battle fatigue, or soldier's heart if they believe in what they're doing & have faith in their leaders.
In this fight, only one side has that. 11/11
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Excited to share my recent piece, highlighting CNAS Technology Policy Lab insights on Dual-Use Technology & U.S. Export Controls.
Big thanks to all lab members—your expertise was & remains invaluable. Link 👇 & some excerpts in 🧵:
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Today, and yours truly would like to present you with our operational-strategic assessment of the situation in Southern Ukraine
rochanconsulting.substack.com/p/ukraine-conf
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🧵/ link in the last tweet. Many of you have seen these Russian fortification lines on satellite images and maps. Thanks to Russian soldiers taking selfies there, together with , we can now show you how they look from the ground. twitter.com/Nrg8000/status
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While Ukraine's offensive in Zaporizhia is starting to ramp up, Russia has spent the last 2 months fortifying defensive lines across the entire oblast.
Ive made an interactive map that shows the most recent satellite imagery and these lines.
nrg800.users.earthengine.app/view/russianfo
Download below
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Petition to have Nicholas Braun (Cousin Greg) play Sam Bankman-Fried whenever that movie is inevitably made
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Hey , you start at your local army recruiting office, then put in about 35 years, with about 1/3 spent in Europe dealing with allies and partners. I can hook you up if you want to start today.
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Replying to @MarkHertling
How do I get a job like Mark's where I travel around the world and test-fire everybody's coolest weapons?
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Had the chance to fire one of these during a visit to Sweden. This is a very good piece of kit.
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#Ukraine: The first photo of a
Swedish CV9040C infantry fighting vehicle already on Ukrainian soil.
About 50 of these armored vehicles with 40mm autocannons were donated to the Ukrainian army by Sweden.
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Christie third in NH already, per this one poll. Trump lead gains and DeSantis takes 6-point hit.
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NEW HAMPSHIRE 2024: Trump holds 32-point lead for Republican Nomination
Trump 44% (+5 from May)
DeSantis 12% (-6)
Christie 7% (+7)
Scott 7% (+6)
Haley 5% (+2)
Ramaswamy 3% (-3)
Pence 3% (+2)
Hutchinson 2% (+1)
National Res. | 06/12-14 | 500 LV
amgreatness.com/2023/06/15/pol
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“Several” US federal government agencies have been hit in a global cyberattack that exploits a vulnerability in widely used software.
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Plenty of people are talking about regulating #AI, but who's actually doing it? explains the status of #AIRegulation around the world in this article: spectrum.ieee.org/ai-regulation- Some takeaways: 🧵
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What is driving changes in Swiss-Chinese relations? How does Bern reconcile its principle of neutrality with the challenges posed by Beijing?
🎙️This week on China Global, Dr. Simona Grano joins to discuss evolving ties between 🇨🇭 and 🇨🇳:
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The newest GOP presidential candidate, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, only 2 years ago suggested the U.S. consider military strikes on Cuba, citing the 1989 invasion of Panama as a positive example
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"Air strikes in Cuba" are now being floated on The News tv channel
1:30
402.7K views
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I'm sorry but how many birthday cakes does Henry Kissinger need?!
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The Defense Policy Board concluded a remarkable series of discussions today focused on maintaining peace, stability, and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. An honor to host such an esteemed group, whose wisdom and perspectives enriched the dialogue. More: policy.defense.gov/OUSDP-Offices/
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My reporting indicates that Henry Kissinger is a birthday person.
The Pentagon gave him a cake the other day.
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I'm sorry but how many birthday cakes does Henry Kissinger need?! twitter.com/dod_policy/sta…
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With the batch of news stories about U.S.-Iran talks, I'll re-up this thread.
BLUF: Any interim "deal" will be flawed, but it'll almost certainly be better than no deal, and its flaws are the price for leaving the JCPOA.
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Note sure whether to believe this story about an interim U.S.-Iran deal. But, IF TRUE, remember this...
We've lived in a world with an Iran deal and one without an Iran deal. The former was *obviously* a more secure one. (1/n)
middleeasteye.net/news/iran-us-n
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What a wonderful story.
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On the 27th straight day of filming “Forrest Gump,” Tom Hanks was tired & worried.
During a scene on the famous park bench, Hanks stopped & said to director Bob Zemeckis,
“Hey, Bob…is anybody going to care about this movie? I don’t think anybody’s going to care.”
Bob replied,… Show more
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