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White House justification for killing Iran’s Soleimani based on 'razor thin' evidence, NYT reporter argues

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On Friday, President Trump said his decision to order a US drone strike that killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani was to prevent a "very major attack" against Americans. Rukmini Callimachi, a correspondent for The New York Times who covers ISIS and al-Qaeda, questioned the timing of the attack, arguing that it is "hard to decouple Soleimani's killing from the impeachment saga."

On Friday, President Trump said his decision to order a US drone strike that killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani was to prevent a "very major attack" against Americans. Rukmini Callimachi, a correspondent for The New York Times who covers ISIS and al-Qaeda, questioned the timing of the attack, arguing that it is "hard to decouple Soleimani's killing from the impeachment saga."

  1. 3 janv.

    President Trump says the US "did not take action to start a war" following an attack that killed a top Iranian general. Follow live updates.

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  2. 3 janv.

    Trump claims Soleimani was plotting “imminent and sinister attacks on American diplomats and military personnel, but we caught him in the act and terminated him.”

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  3. 3 janv.

    “We take comfort in knowing that his reign of terror is over.” In remarks made at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said that the drone strike killing Qassem Soleimani is something that “should’ve been done long ago”

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  4. 3 janv.

    In remarks from Mar-a-Lago, President Trump said the administration took action in Iraq “to stop a war. We did not take action to start a war."

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  5. 4 janv.

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.

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  6. 4 janv.

    2. In fact the evidence pointing to that came as three discrete facts: a) A pattern of travel showing Suleimani was in Syria, Lebanon & Iraq to meet with Shia proxies known to have an offensive position to the US. (As one source said that’s just “business as usual” for Suleimani)

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  7. 4 janv.

    3. More intriguing was b) information indicating Suleimani sought the Supreme Leader’s approval for an operation. He was told to come to Tehran for consultation and further guidance, suggesting the operation was a big deal - but again this could be anything.

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  8. 4 janv.

    4. And finally, a) and b) were read in the context of c) Iran’s increasingly bellicose position towards American interests in Iraq, including the attack that killed a U.S. contractor and the recent protest outside the American embassy.

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  9. 4 janv.

    5. But as one source put it a) + b) + c) is hardly evidence of an imminent attack on American interests that could kill hundreds, as the White House has since claimed. The official describes the reading of the intelligence as an illogical leap.

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  10. 4 janv.

    6. One official described the planning for the strike as chaotic. The official says that following the attack on an Iraqi base which killed an American contractor circa Dec. 27, Trump was presented a menu of options for how to retaliate. Killing Suleimani was the “far out option”

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  11. 4 janv.

    7. Trump chose a more moderate option which involved the Dec. 29 strikes on the positions of an Iranian-backed militia. Then came the protest at the gates of the US embassy in Baghdad:

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  12. 4 janv.

    8. It was after the embassy protests that the president, according to one US official, chose the Suleimani option, but the problem at that point in time is that American intelligence did not know his precise whereabouts. They scrambled to locate him, says the official.

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  13. 4 janv.

    9. According to the official, the strike on Suleimani was pulled together so quickly that initially the US was not sure PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was in the convoy. He was also killed and is also viewed as an Iranian proxy:

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  14. 4 janv.

    10. Since the strike, Iran has convened its national security chiefs. Chatter intercepted by American intelligence indicates they’re considering a range of options. Cyberattacks, attacks on oil facilities and American personnel and diplomatic outposts have all been cited so far.

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  15. 4 janv.

    11. But among the “menu options” that I had not heard before were: (1) kidnapping and execution of American citizens. (This might explain why the State Department has ordered the evacuation of all US citizens in Iraq, not just government and embassy employees).

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  16. 4 janv.

    12. Another is attacks on American diplomatic and military outposts not just in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, but as far afield as UAE and Bahrain. The official I spoke to was particularly concerned for American troops stationed in Iraq, some of whom are co-located with Shia militias

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  17. 4 janv.

    13. How does this impact the war against ISIS? I turned to for insight. He’s studied Iraq since the 1990s. What he told me is that months before the strike that killed Suleimani, the tensions with Iran had already degraded America’s ability to fight ISIS in Iraq:

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  18. 4 janv.

    14. In 2019, America has been denied airspace and access to operations in Iraq to go after ISIS at the behest of Iran-backed groups. The US has also been told to stop communicating with Sunni tribes. These are important setbacks that have already weakened the US’ posture in Iraq

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  19. 4 janv.

    15. “It’s all been downhill,” told me, in terms of America’s access to the ISIS battlespace in recent months due to Iranian pressure on Iraqi officials. One upshot? US special operations forces have been on the offensive in Diyala, Nineveh and Kirkuk provinces

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  20. 4 janv.

    16. A likely outcome of the recent strike is that small, out-of-the-way outposts for special operations forces will be deemed too vulnerable and will be eliminated. Fighting ISIS is no longer the priority if the outer wall of the US embassy is being attacked.

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  21. 4 janv.

    17. Before I go back to the pool let me just say the obvious: No one’s trying to downplay Suleimani’s crimes. The question is why now? His whereabouts have been known before. His resume of killing-by-proxy is not a secret. Hard to decouple his killing from the impeachment saga.

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  22. 4 janv.

    Fascinating insight (thread) with reading from someone with huge knowledge of the complexities of the region and probably the foremost expert on IS.

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.
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  23. 4 janv.

    In the absence of details from the White House on the “imminent attack” — details that Congress and the American people deserve — this information is very revealing. Thank you,

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.
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  24. 4 janv.

    Respectfully, "razor thin" does not belong in any legitimate intelligence assessment. See Secondly, one should be wary of leaks of classified info. It is unlawful, and you have no way of assessing the knowledge, credibility, or agenda of the leaker.

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.
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  25. 4 janv.

    important details and insights in this thread by NYT reporter Rukmini Callimachi show there were no justification for strike. Oddly, her reporting and details aren’t in Baker/Haberman story on NYT homepage on same topic. (Nor is she on byline).

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.
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  26. 4 janv.

    Great thread on the Suleimani strike. Is anyone really surprised at the rushed & chaotic decision-making of the Trump administration? Of course not. Nor by the growing evidence that the ‘imminent attack’ justification is bogus.Nor that no one really has any idea what happens next

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.
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  27. 4 janv.

    I'm seeing a few people say that this interesting thread shows that the attacks were unlawful. Perhaps, but the US has since 9/11, all three administrations, embraced a very stretchy principle of “imminence.” Congress has done nothing in response.

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.
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  28. 4 janv.

    Several conclusions from this excellent thread: The "imminent threat" argument is dubious, the planning process was flawed, the aftershocks will be serious--for US and allies, once again US effort v. ISIS will suffer, US continues to lose ground in Iraq and the region.

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.
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  29. 4 janv.

    Several people have been killed in a new airstrike targeting two vehicles carrying Iran-backed militia north of Baghdad, according to an Iraqi official.

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  30. 3 janv.

    The death of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani has sparked protests in Iran and Kargil, India, with dozens taking the streets.

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  31. 4 janv.

    Thousands gather in Baghdad to mourn Qassem Soleimani.

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