Rough math: Probability of Bitcoin imploding = P(B) = x Prob of altcoin A imploding = P(A) = x + (1 - x) * P(A imploding by itself) = y Prob of derivative token T built on A imploding = P(T) = y + (1 - y) * P(T imploding by itself) Most P(A) close to 100% & P(T) even more so.
Yes. (1 - x) represents the chance of failure that’s independent of external conditions. For an altcoin, it’s the probability of it imploding on its own *if Bitcoin doesn’t fail*.
