Rough math: Probability of Bitcoin imploding = P(B) = x Prob of altcoin A imploding = P(A) = x + (1 - x) * P(A imploding by itself) = y Prob of derivative token T built on A imploding = P(T) = y + (1 - y) * P(T imploding by itself) Most P(A) close to 100% & P(T) even more so.
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After a few more years, or less, Ethereum was be completely independent of Bitcoin.
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E.g., I have probability of Bitcoin failing at ~20%, Ethereum failing if Bitcoin doesn’t fail at >50%. So best case for P(Ethereum) = 0.2 + 0.8 * 0.5 = 60% chance of failure . You can plug in your own estimates (if you agree with the assumptions).