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hugohanoi's profile
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
@hugohanoi

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Hugo Nguyen

@hugohanoi

I chain, therefore I am ⛓️

Joined April 2012

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    Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi May 12

    Rough math: Probability of Bitcoin imploding = P(B) = x Prob of altcoin A imploding = P(A) = x + (1 - x) * P(A imploding by itself) = y Prob of derivative token T built on A imploding = P(T) = y + (1 - y) * P(T imploding by itself) Most P(A) close to 100% & P(T) even more so.

    8:56 PM - 12 May 2018
    • 8 Retweets
    • 29 Likes
    • Tuan Real Estate .: :. Bit by Bit ⚡️ anthropreneur Kartik Talwar Liber Liver Saifedean Ammous Wenyao Tuo Nelson
    4 replies 8 retweets 29 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi May 12

        Relationship between P(T) & P(A) is self-evident: a thing cannot exist if the thing that hosts it ceases to exist.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi May 12

        Relationship between P(A) & P(B) is based on the realization that Bitcoin is a once-in-a-millennium innovation that cannot be easily out-innovated. If Bitcoin goes down, everything else goes down with it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. nic carter‏ @nic__carter May 13
        Replying to @hugohanoi

        To put it more simply: tokens are conditional on altcoins which are conditional on bitcoin?

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi May 13
        Replying to @nic__carter

        Yes 😜 E.g., I have probability of Bitcoin failing at ~20%, Ethereum failing if Bitcoin doesn’t fail at >50%. So best case for P(Ethereum) = 0.2 + 0.8 * 0.5 = 60% chance of failure . You can plug in your own estimates (if you agree with the assumptions).

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. 1 more reply
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      2. Ariel Deschapell‏ @NotASithLord May 13
        Replying to @hugohanoi

        B = Bitcoin and A = Altcoin? Is P just probability? And where does "+ (1 - x)" come from?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi May 13
        Replying to @NotASithLord

        Yes. (1 - x) represents the chance of failure that’s independent of external conditions. For an altcoin, it’s the probability of it imploding on its own *if Bitcoin doesn’t fail*.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Lt.Carl #LitecoinIsNotAnAltcoin‏ @SunDazedRentals May 12
        Replying to @hugohanoi @GaryDeSnailBot

        Um. I need more beer. 👍😳

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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