Relationship between P(T) & P(A) is self-evident: a thing cannot exist if the thing that hosts it ceases to exist.
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Relationship between P(A) & P(B) is based on the realization that Bitcoin is a once-in-a-millennium innovation that cannot be easily out-innovated. If Bitcoin goes down, everything else goes down with it.
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To put it more simply: tokens are conditional on altcoins which are conditional on bitcoin?
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Yes
E.g., I have probability of Bitcoin failing at ~20%, Ethereum failing if Bitcoin doesn’t fail at >50%. So best case for P(Ethereum) = 0.2 + 0.8 * 0.5 = 60% chance of failure . You can plug in your own estimates (if you agree with the assumptions). - 1 more reply
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B = Bitcoin and A = Altcoin? Is P just probability? And where does "+ (1 - x)" come from?
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Yes. (1 - x) represents the chance of failure that’s independent of external conditions. For an altcoin, it’s the probability of it imploding on its own *if Bitcoin doesn’t fail*.
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Um. I need more beer.

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