The worst case is that SPV users use this for fee estimation, miners manipulate it, and then those users pay more in fees---potentially much more---than they would've if they used a centralized fee estimation tool. That seems worse than today, at least from the user perspective.
8/ In conclusion, I think this attack is unrealistic, easily spotted, and easily mitigated against.
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I think it's unlikely, but not unrealistic. My main point was that I think the risk of this attack, or more clever variants, means that SPV clients would be better off using existing semi-centralized fee estimation services rather than the miner-curated minimum block fee info.
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I would argue that it’s easier to manipulate these centralized fee estimation services than to manipulate min feerate consistently over X blocks- where X is a large number :-)
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Btw, there is no reason SPV fee estimation can’t get smarter. “Median over X blocks” is just the naive algorithm. Charlie already mentioned another one like having a fallback.
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If you want to get fancy, you can do anomaly detection / cluster analysis over a large distribution of min feerates. Given enough blocks, this kind of analysis should produce a fee estimate not too far off from a full node’s estimate.
End of conversation
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