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hugohanoi's profile
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
@hugohanoi

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Hugo Nguyen

@hugohanoi

I chain, therefore I am ⛓️

Joined April 2012

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    1. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
      Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

      As long as there’s a premium on staking returns over the risk-free rate, capital will flow into staking, i.e., people will start taking on debt to participate in staking, until the premium is no longer there.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
      Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

      The bigger the staking return premium, the greater the influx of debt-based capital into staking.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
      Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

      Hugo Nguyen Retweeted Hugo Nguyen

      In the long run, staking return cannot be larger than the risk-free rate as money is a non-productive asset & staking a non-productive activity, so return cannot be perpetually above the returns given by productive assets. It is simply not sustainable.https://twitter.com/hugohanoi/status/1021918438678122496 …

      Hugo Nguyen added,

      Hugo Nguyen @hugohanoi
      Money is not equity of the global economy 🙂 Money is not equity, period. When you park capital in a non-productive asset, it is OUT of the system completely. Decommissioned. The non-productive asset value can only rise if it piggybacks on the success of productive assets. https://twitter.com/timos_m/status/1021893267733000192 …
      2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
    4. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
      Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

      The subsequent transition from non-debt-based staking to debt-based staking will revert reservation demand back to its initial state, prior to PoS rollout.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
      Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

      As more debt are taken on, people will become less & less incentivized to hold on to their stake. Reservation demand then will come purely from how good the PoS coin is as a Store-of-Value (not likely to be good), not from the requirement for staking.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
      Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter @real_vijay

      I'm not sure your debt focus is warranted. A small gain in the portion of non-debt capital would be extremely significant. Perhaps this is next part is where I'm wrong: the economic incentive of staking rewards is roughly an analog to an interest rate. (1/3)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
      Replying to @MisterKeegan @hugohanoi and

      Without going through the effects of changes in relative interest rates in traditional currencies, the case here is actually more complex than that classic. Two competitors to a well functioning POS coin would be POW coins (currencies with no interest rate) or (2/3)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
      Replying to @MisterKeegan @hugohanoi and

      ...fiat currencies that have an interest rate, but also are managed by central banks with a mandate to maintain stable inflation over time to incentivize investment. I'm no exactly sure how a currency with an interest rate and no incentive to inflate itself will look (3/3)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
      Replying to @MisterKeegan @hugohanoi and

      Which is to say, I'm not sure what the through-time interactions of those three kinds of systems looks like or to which system value accretes, but writing it off as a one-time bump seems to ignore the complexity of the on-going interaction.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
      Replying to @MisterKeegan @hugohanoi and

      I guess another way of putting it is this: as soon as there exist staking rewards there also exists a discounted future appreciation/depreciation of that coin vs every currency in the world (and discounted depreciation vs every POW coin). I can't figure out how that settles.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
      Replying to @MisterKeegan @nic__carter @real_vijay

      All investments have a rate of return, which is *not* to be confused with an interest rate. One can invest in productive assets (stocks) or non-productive assets (gold, currencies). Fiat is an asset with negative rate of return over the long term, due to its inflationary nature.

      10:44 AM - 11 Sep 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @MisterKeegan and

          Bitcoin (and fixed supply currencies) has non-zero rate of return because 1/ people buy into the vision of uncensorable sound money 2/ the larger economic pie (GDP) keeps rising thanks to productive assets

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @MisterKeegan and

          I'm not talking about debt for no reason. I'm talking about debt because it is an inevitable evolution of the market: capital will naturally flow to where the best returns are. You have to account for this when analyzing staking, esp. as its main cost component is financial.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter @real_vijay

          I'm not confusing these. Interest rate parity in forward markets implies an expected return for holding a currency that is equal in each currency, discounting future changes in value equal to the real interest rate differential through a change in the present value.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
          Replying to @MisterKeegan @hugohanoi and

          Also I'm not saying you're talking about debt for no reason-- definitely a big part in how the economics of staking play out. However, you can be right about debt and still be wrong about the value impact of staking (can not only focus on debt).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 11
          Replying to @MisterKeegan @hugohanoi and

          To be clear-- I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm saying your arguments (for why you are right) don't demonstrate sufficient evidence for your conclusion.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. End of conversation

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