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hugohanoi's profile
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
@hugohanoi

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Hugo Nguyen

@hugohanoi

I chain, therefore I am ⛓️

Joined April 2012

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    1. Vijay Boyapati‏ @real_vijay Sep 8

      1/ #Ethereum is crashing (not just in USD terms but in BTC terms); has the demand for a decentralized world computer disappeared, or is something else at play? Let's consider the fundamentals from an economic point of view.pic.twitter.com/8ii9f4goMG

      88 replies 482 retweets 1,046 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 9
      Replying to @real_vijay

      Thoughts on impact of PoS on reservation demand?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Vijay Boyapati‏ @real_vijay Sep 9
      Replying to @MisterKeegan

      Theoretically it could help but I strongly doubt POS is going to work at scale

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Alan Keegan‏ @MisterKeegan Sep 9
      Replying to @real_vijay

      Why?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Vijay Boyapati‏ @real_vijay Sep 9
      Replying to @MisterKeegan

      That subject is deserving of a tweet storm in and of itself. I suggest you look up the writing of @hugohanoi on this topic, he's great.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    6. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 10
      Replying to @real_vijay @MisterKeegan

      Hugo Nguyen Retweeted Hugo Nguyen

      🙏🏻😊 This thread gives a good summary of what I’ve written on the topic. From the engineering perspective, PoS is unlikely to work / offer any real benefit over PoW.https://twitter.com/hugohanoi/status/1021831408489136128 …

      Hugo Nguyen added,

      Hugo Nguyen @hugohanoi
      "Irretrievable sunk cost" is the key in PoW. The "stake" used in PoS creates a temporary illusion of security/immutability. It's neither sunk nor irretrievable, and that's a fundamental flaw you can never get around. https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1021563523598573568 …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 3 retweets 7 likes
    7. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 10
      Replying to @hugohanoi @real_vijay @MisterKeegan

      From the economic perspective, PoS has zero impact on “reservation demand” beyond what’s being offered by PoW. Any extra reservation demand that comes from staking will only exist to the extent that MR stays > MC: this demand is fleeting & won't last.

      3 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
    8. nic carter‏ @nic__carter Sep 11
      Replying to @hugohanoi @real_vijay @MisterKeegan

      I actually disagree here. I think the transition from [no stake] to [stake] should induce some amount of reservation (assuming stake returns exceed some acceptable threshold). but this only happens once, and it actually gets priced in prior to PoS.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. nic carter‏ @nic__carter Sep 11
      Replying to @nic__carter @hugohanoi and

      if you see people saying "PoS is coming, better buy now" – that's the market pricing in the expected scarcity inducement... so the effect should be minimal on rollout. but I do think PoS should induce some reservation, again assuming sufficient returns

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
      Replying to @nic__carter @real_vijay @MisterKeegan

      I’m not sure we disagree? 🤔 Let me try to unpack this.

      9:52 AM - 11 Sep 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

          It’s true that the initial switch to PoS will probably induce a one-shot, temporary boost in reservation demand, as people flock to “stock up” on tokens in preparation for staking, but this reservation demand is indefensible.

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

          As long as there’s a premium on staking returns over the risk-free rate, capital will flow into staking, i.e., people will start taking on debt to participate in staking, until the premium is no longer there.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. mr Jimbo‏ @jimbo_mr Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

          lol in what world can you borrow at the risk free rate? True borrowing costs may immediately be in excess of staking return for most people, especially when you incorporate rates forward curve and expected staking rollout...

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @jimbo_mr @nic__carter and

          Way to miss the point. It's not about the RFR or borrowing at the RFR per se but about how any excess return over other types of investments will inevitably cause capital to flow into staking.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @jimbo_mr and

          > borrowing costs may be in excess of staking return I'm not sure you see the irony but you are arguing against PoS. If staking return is indeed lower than interest rates, people will want to sell their stake & chase things that have better returns. A recipe for disaster.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @jimbo_mr and

          Tbf, this (low rate of return compared to other types of investments) can happen to PoW mining too but since PoW requires extremely specialized equipment, it is a lot harder to sell a mining stake. Mining requires long term commitment, staking does not.

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        8. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @jimbo_mr and

          To summarize this point: staking's primary cost component is financial. Therefore, PoS is a lot more susceptible to movement of financial capital & swings in interest rates than PoW, which requires large, upfront, long-term hardware investment.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        9. mr Jimbo‏ @jimbo_mr Sep 11
          Replying to @hugohanoi @nic__carter and

          you need to understand that interest rates across assets are not apples to apples and have never been

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 1 more reply

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