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hugohanoi's profile
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
Hugo Nguyen
@hugohanoi

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Hugo Nguyen

@hugohanoi

I chain, therefore I am ⛓️

Joined April 2012

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Jun 24

      This is the first deep, pioneering economics paper I've seen about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24717  I really wish NBER working papers were ungated, so more crypto enthusiasts could read it.

      56 replies 143 retweets 512 likes
    2. Riccardo Spagni‏Verified account @fluffypony Jun 26
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      Read the ungated one, it’s not particularly revolutionary or impressive, and contains much which is wildly inaccurate. However, here’s some actual deep, pioneering work by @evoskuil on cryptoeconomics:https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin/wiki/Cryptoeconomics …

      4 replies 6 retweets 41 likes
    3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
      Replying to @fluffypony @Noahpinion @evoskuil

      Budish paper IMO raises interesting questions but its conclusions are built on highly unrealistic assumptions & an inaccurate pricing model (for mining hardware). My take herehttps://medium.com/@hugonguyen/a-review-of-budishs-51-attack-theories-what-is-the-fair-price-of-an-old-asic-59a7dcf9ff94 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Eric Voskuil‏ @evoskuil Aug 13
      Replying to @hugohanoi @fluffypony @Noahpinion

      Cost of hardware is irrelevant. Amount of energy is also irrelevant. An external irreducible (energy) cost is required for confirmation. Confirmation cost is controlled by demand for confirmation (supply is capped). As in all markets, competition maintains return on investment.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Eric Voskuil‏ @evoskuil Aug 13
      Replying to @evoskuil @hugohanoi and

      A 51% attack is not only possible, it’s inevitable once Bitcoin starts to really matter. Bitcoin doesn’t use hope as a defense. Fees rise on censored txs until the free market can overcome the censor’s ability to subsidize its operations, or it fails to do so.

      2 replies 5 retweets 15 likes
      Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
      Replying to @evoskuil @fluffypony @Noahpinion

      > A 51% attack is not only possible, it’s inevitable Let me make sure I understand... So you think 51% attacks are inevitable, and imagine a future where Bitcoin would go back and forth between being 51-percent-attacked (low fees) and censorship-resistant (high fees)?

      6:29 PM - 13 Aug 2018
      • 2 Likes
      • Cryptosaul Hasu
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Eric Voskuil‏ @evoskuil Aug 13
          Replying to @hugohanoi @fluffypony @Noahpinion

          Yes - for some definitions of “hi” and “low”. And fees are the *only* thing that defends Bitcoin from censorship.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
          Replying to @evoskuil @fluffypony @Noahpinion

          Two points: (a) while I agree that fees will have to rise substantially to shoulder the bulk of security cost, surely you cannot ignore the sunk cost in mining equipments altogether?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
          Replying to @hugohanoi @evoskuil and

          Investment in mining will be a lagging function of fees, true. But that sunk cost will also act as a strong barrier against attacks. Any analysis of majority attacks must consider cost of hardware (stock) - Budish did too. You can’t just look at fees (flow) alone.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
          Replying to @hugohanoi @evoskuil and

          If you include cost of hardware in your analysis, then IMO 51% attacks are *not* inevitable.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
          Replying to @hugohanoi @evoskuil and

          (b) If you think 51% attack are inevitable, then surely you must think Bitcoin is already a failed project. It is the only natural conclusion.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
          Replying to @hugohanoi @evoskuil and

          Reason is no one knows what a “safe” level of fees is. Your marginal user would always try to pay the lowest fee he can get away with. Meaning there is no equilibrium. Bitcoin would fluctuate between being safe & unsafe. Who would want to use an unstable system like that?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Eric Voskuil‏ @evoskuil Aug 13
          Replying to @hugohanoi @fluffypony @Noahpinion

          All buyers pay the lowest possible price, and sellers demand the highest possible. If the buyer is willing to pay the seller for sufficient security, then he will produce it and the buyer will have it. This is a praxeological truth.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Hugo Nguyen‏ @hugohanoi Aug 13
          Replying to @evoskuil @fluffypony @Noahpinion

          Ahh... There is your problem, when it comes to fees, there is no such thing as "sufficient security", at least on a per-transaction level. Neither the buyer nor the seller knows how to calculate this number. Only after you get 51-percent-attacked you'd find out.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. End of conversation

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