4/ For variance in finding blocks: For small solo-miners, the variance in finding blocks (& consequently, the variance in payouts) is too great to make mining practical.
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15/ ASIC design is a subset of IC design, which has roughly followed Moore’s law for the last four decades. However, there are signs that Moore’s law is breaking down as we reach the limits of “miniaturization at atomic levels.”
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16/ It took us 2 1/2 years to go from 22nm to 14nm (April 2012-Sep2014). It took us almost another 3 years to go from 14nm to 10nm (Sep2014-April2017) - not without problems.
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17/ GMO is rumored to have started looking into 7nm ASICs. It'd be curious to see performance benchmarks in June, as this seems to be *well ahead* of the chip industry.https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/999578504550330369 …
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18/ Nevertheless, the trend is clear: we’re running into hard limits. a/ Practical limits of minimization. b/ Beyond these limits are other limits: energy efficiency limits, computational speed limits.
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19/ So what’s the best strategy for miners here? Absence of a major tech breakthrough, when we run into these limits, ASICs will likely become commoditized. In which case this variance will resolve itself out.
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20/ However, in the short to medium term, miners probably need large investments in chip design / manufacturing / supply chain to stay ahead of the curve.
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End of conversation
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