What is the "game" that's over?
Game Over! Genomic Prediction of Social Mobility. Out-of-sample validation; polygenic score predicts life outcome (socioeconomic index). Cohorts from NZ / US, born different decades. Higher SES families have higher polygenic scores on average. PNAS paper. http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/07/game-over-genomic-prediction-of-social.html …pic.twitter.com/qrdAwu8eUg
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I was wondering the same thing. If it’s the genes are completely uncorrelated with social outcomes game, the fat lady sang at that one a long time ago.
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PNAS paper uses latest SSGAC EA predictor (soon in Nat Gen): r ~ 0.35. Nontrivial OOS validation of life impact. Second figure at link: ~0.35 is a significant threshold; good enough for outlier detection. GCTA limit ~0.45 for EA, higher for g itself. http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/07/game-over-genomic-prediction-of-social.html …pic.twitter.com/Dg7aSRXicX
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Wonder what
@kph3k thinks of this paper... -
I really like this paper particularly bc of its use of family data. I think setting up genetic vs sociological explanations of economic disparities as a “game” where one side will win is flawed.
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Can’t emphasize enough that genetic associations w/ income are about distribution of goods not hierarchy of people.
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The blog post says the result is "one might expect from a society that is at least somewhat meritocratic". For us non-experts, could you explain how we know that a "polygenic score" has anything to do with merit?
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Looking at this with an untrained eye, I'm wondering whether "polygenic score" might be measuring, say, ruthlessness, conformism, or beauty: traits that have nothing to do with merit but are nevertheless useful in attaining social mobility for sociological reasons.
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This is a good question — what do we find when we data mine for genetics associated w/ education? Bioinformatics prob not sufficient to get us answers (see https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(17)30629-3 …). We try to work the problem from the opposite direction, top downhttp://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797616643070 …
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We find education-linked genetics are associated with more rapid cognitive development in childhood (even before school entry) and also with better self-control and interpersonal skills
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Did you control for parents’ educational level when looking at childhood cognitive development? Highly educated parents interact differently with their children, even at an early age, which affects the children’s cognitive development.
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...our genetic measurement is imprecise. The education polygenic score explains only a fraction of the estimated total genetic influence on education ...analyses do not completely exclude potential bias due to population stratification This is game over? Please...
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Steve, thanks for adding some sanity and humanity to this discussion.
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Thank you!
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Can you please explain in layman terms what is polygenic score? I understand that article claims with data that your genes are what effects your socioeconomic results but as I am unable to find an explanation for polygenic? (multi generational? Multi field? Multi heritage?) lost
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Polygenic scores are basically a way to measure population stratification. These scores are then used to bogusly correlate phenotypes to GWAS results that didn’t actually replicate, to give the illusion of replication.
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So from what I understand you don't actually think these genetic markers are correctly chosen or really correlate. I see is there a place I can read how they are selected? If they are created from taking repeated markers from already stratified populace they might be misleading
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It's an ongoing issue. They are using polygenic scores because they aren't able to replicate the SNP's/loci from GWAS studies. Polygenic scores are still speculative and largely unproven. You can see my personal take at my blog, here: https://bit.ly/2KVO3HK
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The Discussion needs improvement, though:pic.twitter.com/ZQLf78wmGI
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