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hsalje's profile
Henrik Salje
Henrik Salje
Henrik Salje
@hsalje

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Henrik Salje

@hsalje

Infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge

pdg.gen.cam.ac.uk
Joined February 2014

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    Henrik Salje‏ @hsalje 13 May 2020

    Despite 20,000+ COVID19 deaths, we find only ~5% of France infected. The lockdown, eased on Monday, reduced transmission by 80%, however R still close to 1 (~0.7) with 3-6k daily infections, leaving little room for post-lockdown increases @ScienceMagazine https://bit.ly/2zzLKJX pic.twitter.com/IaeVeHYiDn

    9:22 AM - 13 May 2020
    • 807 Retweets
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    53 replies 807 retweets 1,498 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Harry Covert‏ @Georges_Profond 13 May 2020
        Replying to @hsalje @ScienceMagazine

        Little room for increase ? Meaning ? Thanks for the data

        2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Harry Covert‏ @Georges_Profond 13 May 2020
        Replying to @Georges_Profond @hsalje @ScienceMagazine

        @samgoeta intéressant... confinement très/trop efficace. Immunité basse. Je propose de confiner les >50 et laisser le reste de la population s’immuniser

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Ian Williamson‏ @i_williamson1 13 May 2020
        Replying to @hsalje @ScienceMagazine

        Garlic.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      2. David Borges  🇨🇦 🇵🇹‏ @B001David 13 May 2020
        Replying to @AwWeglarz @hsalje and

        Don't try....none of the math on this even remotely makes sense.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Rogerwhite‏ @yearlstone 13 May 2020
        Replying to @hsalje @BallouxFrancois @ScienceMagazine

        what are the dot-dash lines representing on the bottom 2 graphs?

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Silvia Sellán  🏳️‍🌈‏ @sellan_s 13 May 2020
        Replying to @yearlstone @hsalje and

        Usually used to represent confidence intervals when estimating a curve (i.e., "I am not sure if the real curve is the blue one, but I am 95% sure that it falls between these two dotted lines") http://www.real-statistics.com/regression/confidence-and-prediction-intervals/ …

        0 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Horia‏ @ht0ma 13 May 2020
        Replying to @hsalje @ScienceMagazine

        isn't there a relation between R and the percentage of infected people in a population? why do you say there is little room for R increment and, at the same time, hope to see a larger percentage of infected?

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 13 May 2020
        Replying to @ht0ma @hsalje @ScienceMagazine

        If R>1, cases will increase; if R<1 cases decrease. As a larger fraction of the population becomes immune following infection or vaccination R declines from max value R0. R = R0*Susc pop (S)/tot pop (N). But behavior can change R&R0.

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      2. Thomas Georgeson‏ @TGeorgeson 13 May 2020
        Replying to @nicholasklemen @hsalje @ScienceMagazine

        Need to confirm, but I suspect this study is nationwide. So large areas of rural France with limited exposure - versus care home settings. New York has a subway, reasonably young population etc.

        2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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