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houndcl's profile
Lu Chen #nobias
Lu Chen #nobias
Lu Chen #nobias
@houndcl

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Lu Chen #nobias

@houndcl

Informatics Leader at NCATS functional genomics lab @ncats_nih_gov making_every_data_point_count | horribly_neutral | curiosity_driven_research (views≠employer)

Rockville, MD
Joined January 2012

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    Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

    Lu Chen #nobias Retweeted Lu Chen #nobias

    (1/n) Raoult’s team reported the result of hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin trial to treat COVID19 for > 1k patients. https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ABSTRACT-v-2-GB.pdf … https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Table_final_website_IHU_09_04_2020.pdf … Once again, data is broken, and I smelled their anxiety several days ago. https://twitter.com/houndcl/status/1247871814396764166 … Threads🔻

    Lu Chen #nobias added,

    Lu Chen #nobias @houndcl
    As the publication date that Dr Raoult promised to Dr Oz is approaching, his team is busy with data selection. Will explain when the result becomes public.
    9:59 AM - 9 Apr 2020
    • 83 Retweets
    • 125 Likes
    • Brendan Hilbert, PhD (((Dorit Reiss))) Name cannot be blank Olivier Gimenez 🖖 Romain Bou K Kapila M Dolgopoloff Thierry Rolling Franck
    5 replies 83 retweets 125 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (2/n) I closely monitor IHU’s COVID-19 website since the birth on 3/26. https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/  This website reports the number of COVID positives & death in APHM/IHU, and num of positives & death with >3d treatment. Some major discrepancies have been found. website data:pic.twitter.com/NODsEQVZRX

        4 replies 9 retweets 23 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (3/n) Suspicious numbers: 3/30: number of patients with “H+A” treatment -8 4/4: no update 4/5: total death + 1, BUT “H+A” death +2. (NOBEL PRIZE PLEASE!) 4/5-4/6: >10k increase in total tests, >2k increase in total positive. 4/8: Total tests -10k, total positives -1.7k

        2 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (4/n) I had a gut feeling on 4/6 that they will take “some” action since the death in H+A start to increase dramatically. What a coincidence! -No data on 4/7 -Massive data loss on 4/8 -Rush a preprint out on 4/9 which reports the data till 3/31

        1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (5/n) Let’s go back to the preprint. On April 6th, Raoult reported 20 ICU, and 7 death in Oz’s show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx0ikIE4kgw … (20 ICU, directly from Raoult) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc0e85wTLbM … (7 death based on Oz) The abstract:pic.twitter.com/A933z6tOkq

        2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (6/n) I understand that the preprint might have been written several days ago. However, by the time H+A group had 5 death, there were 3005 positives, and 1818 patients received 3d H+A treatment according to the website data. The abstract:pic.twitter.com/iHhTrwyffH

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (7/n) Table 1. 1061 pts were from 3/3 – 3/31. OK. On 3/31, website said there were 1283 patients that completed 3d H+A, and 1 death. Since the trial protocol was approved on 3/6, no patients received H+A before 3/3. So, total should be 1283 or 1061? Need clarification.pic.twitter.com/iYG8jS3CSa

        2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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      8. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (8/n) Intriguingly, there is a significant increase in the treatment group since 3/26 (+1782). Only +733 in the “control” group. We can assume that most new patients were enrolled into H+A treatment group. (ignore the suspicious dashed line, please)pic.twitter.com/SkvbegUPlA

        1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        Due to this imbalance in enrollment, they should give more time to evaluate the outcome from treatment group. But where is the data for this conclusion? Abstract:pic.twitter.com/lBpjKtaVPX

        2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        (9/n) Conclusion The data management is a disaster. No matter combo work or not, Raoult's team doesn't have a good system to handle the clinical data from thousands of patients properly. Cannot wait to see the data from the other 1k patients who already received 3d treatment.

        2 replies 9 retweets 35 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        @schneiderleonid @Dereklowe @Damkyan_Omega

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Lu Chen #nobias‏ @houndcl 9 Apr 2020

        I assume that researchers & clinicians will be more careful in managing data for randomized trial, because it's obviously harder to trace the numbers once lost. But observational trial should not be the excuse of random numbers.

        3 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      13. End of conversation

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