Harish Krishnan

@hktg13

Sr Fund Manager(Equity) MF, Tech Enthusiast Explorer. These are my personal views and may not necessarily represent the views of my organisation- KotakMF

Vrijeme pridruživanja: studeni 2008.

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  1. 30. sij

    *Govt has infused 3lakh crores in psu banks

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  2. 30. sij
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  3. 30. sij

    9. Moving from targeting more expensive equity flows to debt flows as a segment, where foreigners can also participate as well as ability for leveraged structure to participate can help attract flows at much finer rates than what is discussed in this theoretical example of 8%

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  4. 30. sij

    8. Of course, this raise of 3 lakh crores need to be repaid at end of say, 10 years. In the article, we evaluate avenues of repayment. In any case, once market gains confidence that there is no risk of repayment, these will be refinanced like other govt debt

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  5. 30. sij

    7. Good thing about this basket is they are diversified(some benefit with higher energy prices, some with lower energy etc). Also, many of these companies are all significantly net cash companies, so in say, a bad year they can raise debt on their B/S.

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  6. 30. sij

    6. While am no economist, since the govt doesn't guarantee any coupon, so in that sense this borrowing will not reflect in govt deficit calculation. So the question for buyer of Bharat-COIN is comfort on dividend pools and if it can give at least their "indicative" coupon?

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  7. 30. sij

    5. Bharat-COIN is a legal structure similar to REIT/INVIT where the dividend from their underlying goes to coupon holders that get a dividend. Similar to INVIT, these coupons of 25k crore can fetch, say at 8%, raise 3 lakh crores

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  8. 30. sij

    4. So what is Bharat-COIN? A loose acronym of larger PSU (coal, ongc,ioc,ntpc, hence COIN) along with others like GAIL,BEL,HAL,NMDC,power grid. These companies have consistently given 50k+ Cr dividend every year and govt stake in the share of dividend has been 25k crores

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  9. 30. sij

    4. Also in an environment where India Inc deleverages & consumer sentiment is still soft, eyes are on govt to re-leverage and front load investment to kickstart economic cycle

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  10. 30. sij

    3. But,this 3.1 lakh crores is almost 30% of institutional money flows (FII/MF/Insurance) over the last 5 years!India Inc is going thru massive de-leveraging, as they raise equity for excess of prev eco cycle. This 30% share for disinvestment crowds out significantly equity flows

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  11. 30. sij

    2. After such large stake sales & massive fall in PSU, govt residual stake (if they retain 51%) is 1.2 lakh crores, given disinvestment target of 1 lakh crores, this approach of stake sale need to be re-evaluated. In that context, complete exit like bpcl, concor r very welcome

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  12. 30. sij

    1.All market participant know PSU have eroded significant wealth in last 5 years, PSU etf is down 16% as against a 50% rise in Nifty. But did you know that govt raised almost 3.1 lakh crore in disinvestment, govt has similarly infused 3lakh crores in pay banks in same time period

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  13. 30. sij

    Thread on PSU - article I authored in today's Economic Times : Can Bharat-COIN help Government beat disinvestment blues? We evaluate if there can be a win-win approach to raising resources for govt, minority shareholders as well as not extracting a high cost of capital to economy

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  14. 27. sij

    Global auto cycle - can see inventory build ups going forward? Can the slump in global auto ancillary companies reverse?

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  15. 25. sij

    For sure we need to reduce the risk averseness and bring down effective borrowing cost to economy, and we need to see the end of twin balance sheet deleveraging cycle, but I wouldn't bet against the massive indian consumption story

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  16. 25. sij

    In short, things aren't as bad as made out from economic data point print. It may so happen that it may not result in all round consumption growth across categories and strata, but things are definitely improving at the margin

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  17. 25. sij

    6. And now thanks to global boost in agri/milk prices and higher output, basis average prices of various key agri produce and milk, the increase to rural income can be potentially as large as 32bn$ , if this price sustains...this is almost 13% higher than last year agri output

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  18. 25. sij

    5. Telecom - given JIO pricing, telecom revenue for industry fell off by more than 1 lakh crores, effectively bulk of this would add to consumer surplus. This is now reversing and will pinch the consumer wallet for sure

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  19. 25. sij

    4. Cursory glance of various VC funded unicorns suggests close to 40-50k crore loss, bulk of this is for acquiring customers and so adds to consumer surplus

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  20. 25. sij

    3. Pay commission boost of 1 lakh+ crore by state and central govt over time in last few years, for sure, unlike the past as % of base this time raise was much lower and therefore may not have been as stimulative as prev commission hikes

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