in the medium run it's probably inevitable that Russia is going to institute a version of the Great Firewall, probably using the very same software
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I doubt they'll be that worried, Russia is becoming a Chinese client state no matter what
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Eh, client state is such a strong word. Are Germany or France American client states, by your estimation? Perhaps if so, Russia might become one for China. Right now the RF is more dependent on the EU politically and economically than China.
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Yes, but the trend is unambiguously towards less trade with EU and more with China. Tony Wood compares it to a US/Mexico relationship and I think that's probably right
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And this is unlikely to change any time soon, because the EU will remain the largest consumer of the Russian pipeline gas for the foreseeable future, and China would be hard pressed to replace the European high-tech imports on the Russian market,when it has to import those itself
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the vast infrastructure investments indicate opposite. it's already the #1 source of Russian imports and the #2 destination for exports, and given China's increasing resource needs this will only increase in the future, considering the geopolitical aspects
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Do they, though? I mean, let's take the gas: Sila Sibiri is planned to ship some 38bn cubic meters to China yearly by 2025. Meanwhile, North Stream (1&2 combined) is planned to ship some 110bn yearly to the EU by 2019. I'm not sure what the other large projects are? One Belt?
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OBOR, Vladivostok port expansion, Amur railway bridge, planned Altai pipelines—you have to consider the scale of expansion and not just absolute amounts
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For what it's worth, even if the trade with China keeps growing 30% year on year (which sounds pretty ridiculous), and the trade with the rest of the world completely stagnates, it's taking China 15 years to become the US to Russia's Mexico.
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