Super Tuesday predictions tweet storm! Most of the poll data is no longer reliable because of Buttigieg's, Klobuchar's, and Steyer's departures. So I have to rely on the Data for Progress polls for the most up to date info, and its always risky to rely on one pollster. 1/x
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These figures could be affected by whether a candidate breaks the 15% threshold needed to get delegates at the statewide level. I presumed that anyone close to 15% would get 15% in every state, which boosts Warren's and Bloomberg's totals a bit. 8/x
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We won't know California's real totals for weeks since they take a long time to count late arriving absentees. In 2016 Clinton led by over 20% on election night but won by only 7%. I'll be watching that and regularly updating you all! 9/x
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Follow me tonight as I live tweet all the returns as they come in! 10/10
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I made a mistake on my CA numbers, giving everyone but Bloomberg the delegates they would garner if he doesn't hit the 15%. The revised CA figures are: Sanders 173, Biden 108, Warren 81 That gives Sanders 489 total, Biden 422, and Warren 226. Bloomberg unchanged. 11/12
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I have also looked at prior history for American Samoa. Clinton won 2/3 of the delegates in each of her races. Presuming that indicates establishment Dem strength, I'm estimating Biden 4, Sanders 2 from there. 12/12
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@henryolsenEPPC Do these estimated totals include their current earned delegates from previous states or they are just the Super Tuesday estimated numbers? -
Just Super Tuesday.
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