In the context of the correspondence "Credibility in published data sources" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32844-7/fulltext …, it is worthwhile to be aware of the methods used by EuroStat and GBD to produce the estimates, which could be the reason of such differences
Periodic reminder that the Global burden of disease study is not a “data source”, it’s a compilation of estimates with potentially large errorshttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32844-7/fulltext …
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Eurostat keeps it simple: deaths/person-years based on raw data reported by countries with complete vital registration—>gold standard in mortality measurement https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/demo_mor_esms.htm …
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Do you believe registered vital registration data in European countries are perfect? I suggest reading these papers: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(15)60171-4/fulltext …https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2624200/ …
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Let's assume that the level of completeness of the vital registration system in European countries is very high. But, what about the cause-of-death quality? Don't you think they have underlying causes of death coded as ill-defined and "garbage code"
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Lancet letter is about all-cause mortality
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To be fair, mortality rates in adolescents aged 10-14 are quite low in these countries - the authors should compare estimates and their uncertainty intervals (not the rankings)
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And one of the biggest errors is probably model error (changing model specs from one iteration to the next), which is not covered by their uncertainty intervals
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yes! I am just performing some sensitivity tests with it comparing different measures and different implications. Some strange stuff comes up...especially when health jumps in..
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Why "presenting the data" has always struck me as a terribly confusing way to say "presenting the results."
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True, but
#GBD study is the best available estimates. It uses all publicly available data sources in every estimation cycle. -
I think you mean it's the most comprehensive national-level estimates for the world as whole? E.g. it cannot be asked to outperform official registers from municipalities within wealthy nations?
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GBD Study in partnership with national health authorities is producing also estimates at subnational level, including wealthy nations such is the case of the US, Japan, and UK. For US http://www.healthdata.org/us-health ; US Health Maphttp://vizhub.healthdata.org/subnational/usa
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