1/ At the seed stage, if you miss the best-performing investment, you will eventually be outperformed by someone who blindly invests in every credible deal.
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2/ If you aren’t broadly indexing seed like this, you will miss a deal that can return an unbounded amount of money.
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3/ Startups grow faster earlier and seed investments have longer to compound these high growth rates. Careful diligence is the way to go at later stages but broad indexing is the *only* strategy that makes sense at seed.
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4/ Startups staying private longer has created a powerful wealth-creating engine existing entirely in the private markets - by the time these companies go public their growth rates have tailed off.
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5/ If you’re fortunate enough to have capital to invest and access to private markets, the data suggests you should invest in every credible seed deal.
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If the data so obviously emphasizes Seed stage, and VCs talk about data so much, then why do they make it near impossible for "credible" investments to come their way? As you note, the data says do more ie see more deal opportunities. TY for this commentary
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because they don’t walk it like they talk it and although you only have to be right 1/10 to get a good return that still comes with being “wrong” 9 times. That doesn’t sit well with a lot of people....
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Great takeaways, thanks!
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