Since 1970, models on average predict around 0.2 C warming per decade over land and ocean. Observations show ~0.18 C warming per decade.
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A quick reminder that, reports in British tabloids notwithstanding, climate model projections agree quite well with observed temperatures.pic.twitter.com/7NxGUlBkFu
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The model average predicts about 8% more warming than actually been observed, hardly cause to conclude that warming projections are rubbish.
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Comparing models and observations must be done carefully to ensure that like values and spatial coverage are properly compared.
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For more discussion on properly comparing models and observations see this: http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/robust2015/background.html …
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Especially when the temperature occurred 20 years before the model was built !
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It's called back-casting. But sure, poke fun.
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I am in process of filing provisional patent that will solve this issue. Would you be interested in evaluating the idea with nondisclosure?
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HadCRUT, NOAA now below median with no La Nina (yet). Didn't reach max with powerful El Nino. Slight overestimate. Close though.
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It was perfect in 1998, that El Nino went right to max value like it should have
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Also good during strong La Ninas and -PDO. Hit min in 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011, and 2012 like it should in these conditions
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