Actually it's not unexpected! In December @metoffice forecast "2017: another very warm year for global temperatures" http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/global-forecast-2017 …https://twitter.com/thinkprogress/status/887701853164765186 …
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Here's the
@metoffice global temperature forecast for 2017 (green dot, plus error bars) alongside obs up to 2016. (h/t@hausfath for figure)pic.twitter.com/J6SY4dN1Qw
Pretty good prediction so far! (using NOAA's data since Hadley hasn't released June temps yet):pic.twitter.com/p6UJcsv9P4
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Note that predicted 2017 temps here are estimated using the relationship between the first 6 months and annual temps for NOAA since 1950 1/2
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But Hadley's pre-2017 prediction was pretty close to what this model gives you now that 2017 is half-way through. 2/2
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Thanks Zeke! We'd better tell
@thinkprogress that the warm 2017 so far really isn't unexpected as they seem to think! -
2017 shaping up to be pretty close to model estimates, but higher than simple linear trend since 1970 would give you. Def not freaking out!
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