As we've pointed out, while the emissions underlying RCP8.5 are increasingly implausible, its harder to rule out that level of forcing/warming given uncertainties in carbon feedbacks. Its unlikely in a current policies world, but far from impossible. 2/2https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1222581668675874816 …
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Its important to distinguish between emissions pathways and warming outcomes (which depend on emissions, carbon cycle feedbacks, and climate sensitivity). While more clarity on emissions somewhat narrows warming outcomes, large uncertainties remain!
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On a related note, what's your view of Mann's post on the topic: https://michaelmann.net/content/story-about-%E2%80%98business-usual%E2%80%99-story-misleading … ? In particular I am interested about the CMIP6 issue.
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I think much of what Mike said is also in my thread. With regards to climate sensitivity, carbon cycle feedbacks, and CMIP6:https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1222581658408243200?s=19 …
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Hope they also say
#ParisAccord is misleading. Actually the chance that we reach RCP8. 5 is arguably higher than the#Parisagreement@BBCWorld -
I'd say SSP1-2.6 (< 2C) is probably more likely than SSP5-8.5 from where we are today (though SSP1-1.9 (< 1.5C) might be equally unlikely) .pic.twitter.com/CSYTs50NJg
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It's extremely unhelpful to use the word 'misleading' too. For the general public it carries the inference that it was a deliberate attempt, and dishonest. It's a word that carries a pejorative context.
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Isn't it fascinating how many different moving parts there are in all of this? You and Glen publish a piece on RCP 8.5 being used in misleading ways (as BAU), and then the BBC uses a headline that is misleading about your message, and ends up undermining climate scientists. Ooof!
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Fascinating but not surprising. The public effort to strike down the emissions pathway usually associated with 8.5 has not accounted for the public landscape into which such an effort lands, including Trump's same attack on 8.5:https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/epa-head-targets-worst-case-climate-scenarios/ …
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