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In an informative RealClimate post today, @ClimateOfGavin estimates how temperatures would have changed over time if Hansen's model used our current best estimate of observed radiative forcing: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/30-years-after-hansens-testimony/ … 7/8pic.twitter.com/waBeoypy0v
In summary, Hansen's model got the relationship between increasing greenhouse gases (and other climate forcings) and global warming dead-accurate. What he didn't get right (and what no one could reasonably expect to get right) is how emissions would change in the future. 8/8
Yes, Hansen UNDERESTIMATED emissions post 1988. He used 1.5%/year for Scenario A. In reality, emission have outpaced Scenario A by 27%. 1988-2017 they have averaged 1.9%/year. So to say that Scenario B is accurate, misrepresents Hansen's predictions. Both in temps and emissions.
Scenario B had concentrations of 401ppm in 2016 that were pretty close to the 404ppm observed. The climate doesn't care about emissions, just concentrations, and the accuracy of Hansen's rudimentary carbon cycle model is not really relevant...
Reto is talking about CMIP5 models, not Hansen's 1988 projections. Observations are well within the envelope of CMIP5 and not inconsistent with the multimodel mean. Over the past 50 years, there is little correlation between model warming and model ECS.pic.twitter.com/Q1JHNLg8HL
Thanks this is a pretty stunning graphic display
Thanks.
he didn't get it right, it's utter crap. The earth has gone through cooling and warming trends for ever, in fact.pic.twitter.com/4gS2Wa93vQ
You keep telling yourself that sweetie. That sky is falling and at some point America will hand liberals the power to fix it....HAAAAA!!!!!
You use RealClimate as a source ? It’s nothing but a propaganda machine. LOL !
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