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  1. 3 Oct 2020

    Chaserdude Outlook - Saturday 03 October: Hot dog headed for the Gulf. Check back later for more in-depth analysis.

  2. 4 Oct 2020

    Computer models have sprung to attention Re: Caribbean thing (Invest ). Most, including even GFS, now bring significant system to Middle Gulf Coast Friday-ish. HWRF & HMON—which have done well this year—are especially bullish on intensity, bringing it in as . Hmmm.

  3. 4 Oct 2020

    Start your engines....I believe the hurricane season finale is about to start...

  4. Jun 14

    Here are this evening's computer model tracks for our Gulf low. They will struggle until a well-defined center develops later this week, but the general idea is this likely tracks north toward Texas or Louisiana.

  5. Aug 7

    Haha this tropical weather outlook is rather amusing. Pretty much the entire Atlantic monsoon trough is highlighted for possible development. All areas seem pretty low probability though individually. (eastern area) has fallen off a lot after being 70% chance the other day.

  6. 26 Jul 2020
  7. Jun 17

    What a difference a few hours makes... is well on its way to becoming at least a depression now.

  8. 27 Jul 2020

    My thoughts on Invest this afternoon....

  9. Jun 17

    Invest is now emerging over the Gulf of Mexico. Very broad, very disorganized. A sloppy mess.

  10. 27 Jul 2020

    Invest has a robust spin to it, but is lacking in convection. If this system starts to fire up, it'll be quickly named as the 9th tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

  11. 12z GFS on board with potential for hurricane threat for Gulf Coast late next week. And no, the cooler SSTs are not a guarantee that this will be “no big deal”. I’ll explain in my daily video discussion later today.

  12. Jun 17

    As of a few hours ago, still nothing close to a closed circulation in the Gulf of Mexico with ...

  13. Jun 16

    is starting to get some deeper convection and banding near the Yucatan plus a nice overall twist. Still a broad and disorganized low pressure, but getting that "look".

  14. Jun 15

    Still likely scenario of coming north with large slug of HEAVY RAIN for the wettest part of the country. Guidance holds low together very well over southeast then off ATL/NE coast. Looks like it will trying to get a name even if it has to wait till its off the east coast.

  15. Jun 17

    still a mess caught in the web of an upper low and its pitfalls, but today this "mess" starts to move north with a lot of rain potential. Jury still out as to where this will be on the northern gulf coast and inland. GFS is further east and south with the "load" than EURO.

  16. Aug 5

    is our first cherry since 97L (pre-Elsa), although it does seem a bit aggressive with the wave still inland and model support all over the place.

  17. Jun 16

    Still monitoring which is a broad tropical low pressure system producing pockets of heavy rain across central America. The weak circulation of this system is expected to lift northward across the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, and that's where things get slightly interesting.

  18. Jun 16

    Invest is a broad, disorganized, fairly ill-defined feature this morning. Models continue to bring it north this weekend with most impacts in Louisiana. Rough seas, higher tides, a slight breeze, and somewhat higher rain chances for SE Texas.

  19. Jun 17

    looks a little broad to me

  20. 4 Oct 2020

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