The reason Neil Ferguson (author of the Imperial College) changed his mind (now he says < 20,000 deaths and he recants "> 500,000 deaths) is because the # of asymptomatic cases is MUCH higher than thought. so % fatalities MUCH MUCH lower and peak sooner.
Replying to @jaltucher @ScottAdamsSays
We certainly hope this is true but it's an inference, not fact. Based on data coming from Europe that initial R0 estimate used in the Imperial model was too low. We won't know if this is fact until there's widespread antibody testing.
6:01 PM - 26 Mar 2020
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