What evidence do you have that the US will have worse outcomes than any European country? Evidence I see is that we will easily outperform every other actual Democracy, w the exception of South Korea.
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Adam Kazwell Retweeted Sam Altman
Adam Kazwell added,
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Will be the same here. High infection rate (albeit inconsistent across geo) w low mortality.
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Why? We have high obesity. Should be as bad as Italy or worse. Question right now is did we lock down soon enough? Hoping yes.
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Obesity is a major issue. Less density. Less public transit. 3x ICU capacity/per capita. 3x-5x ventilators/capita.
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Indeed. Chloroquine or some of the newer trials are likely to have some impact, even if not perfect solutions.
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Don’t want to scare anyone but I heard of R0 being as high as 6 in Florida and New York.
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Maybe true, but mortality rate is almost surely substantially less than feared, modeled, predicted.
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It's true that numerator (deaths) and denominator (cases) will change as we account for time lag of symptoms -> death (+ N) and testing ramps up (+ D), it's also true that these can cancel each other out so the current estimates end up close to the final fatality rate.
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