What are the strongest arguments for herd immunity vs containment as a strategy?
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Replying to @harjtaggar
The UK is one of the most sophisticated governments, science-led, and has had a large team prepping for a pandemic for a long time. Their models will be second to none. They show that containment will work short-term but without immunity it'll mutate and be back again quickly.
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Replying to @KieranO @harjtaggar
Kieran mate I must admit I laughed when I read this bit: “The UK is one of the most sophisticated governments”
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Replying to @kul @harjtaggar
Civil service and scientists are pretty top notch. I sure as hell don't mean the politicians!
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Having spent the day researching this (my family are flying back to the UK now) I don’t believe UK scientists have any unique insight or data. They are just willing to take an extraordinary amount of risk vs the rest of the global scientific community. It’s frightening.
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Confirmed today by a report from the Imperial COVID-19 response team: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf … This was a bad time to have trust in the UK government. Poor science, communication and action.pic.twitter.com/PkXJ36F5RK
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Replying to @harjtaggar @kul
We may not be aligned on what the UK approach has been? I understood it to a question of timing. They didn't go into lockdown before as they believed that we were still early in the upswing, and compliance will only last for so long (closing schools isn't practical indefinitely).
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The UK approach was to ignore advice from WHO and scientists who have managed recent pandemics that (1) there is no issue of timing, lockdown asap (2) rollout testing to manage the second wave. The cost of that arrogance will be clearer in hindsight:https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/18/uk-failures-over-covid-19-will-increase-death-toll-says-leading-doctor …
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Harj Taggar Retweeted Conall McDevitt
Other ways of saying the same thing: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239967206579908609?s=20 …,https://twitter.com/ConallMcD/status/1238865202868883461?s=20 …
Harj Taggar added,
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