If you haven't read the Imperial report you may underestimate how long we'll be social distancing for (it says months) (https://imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf …) If you have read it, you may overestimate because it doesn't account for improved testing/contact tracing (https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions …)
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Replying to @harjtaggar
Will 0.9% fatality rate turn out to be accurate? There’re no broad studies with antibody testing for a large cohort of randomly selected people but 9.3% of the NBA players tested were positive with a live infection. If infection rates are 2x or 3x, IFR may be 1/2 or 1/3rd.
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Replying to @aarjav
Probably not but doubt there’ll be reliable enough data to action on that anytime soon, especially as effectiveness of suppression/social distancing has exponential decay and NBA players unlikely to be representative sample?
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Replying to @harjtaggar
We seem to have no good data on a critical question - what % of the total population has already been infected. lots of proxies point to asymptomatic infections being a multiple of symptomatic positive test. Worried we may be missing the forest for the trees.
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Replying to @aarjav
I think that’s the rationale for immediate lockdown and only relaxing it once tests and contact tracing have been rolled out extensively
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Replying to @harjtaggar
Indeed but if it’s true that also means the fatality rate is much lower than the 0.9%
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Harj Taggar Retweeted david friedberg
True, hope for the best and prepare for the worst I guess. Also, seems NBA players might be more representative a sample than I’d thought (don’t know source of assumption)https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1240041815840919552?s=20 …
Harj Taggar added,
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Replying to @harjtaggar
If the 0.9% fatality rate is off by a multiple, then so is the hospitalization rate. It would be very useful to know that soon. Singapore seems to already be using antibody tests. Those could also allow people with immunity to go back into the workforce.
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